In Britain’s Military Deterrence Gaps, a report we released last week at our British-American think tank 878, Lord Richard Dannatt, Britain’s former Chief of the General Staff, accused his Government of “wishful thinking” and a failure to fund the nation’s defence, with serious ramifications for the United States.
Dannatt served as Chief of the General Staff, Britain’s top soldier from 2006 to 2009, after a 38-year career in Britain’s military. He is currently an influential member of the House of Lords, the British Parliament’s second chamber.
, leaving it dangerously low on attack craft.
Accusing Britain’s new Prime Minister Andy Burnham of “wishful thinking,” Dannatt described the Labour Party Government’s recent (and much-delayed) Defence Investment Plan as “fail[ing] to properly fund defence”: he said that NATO badly needs the U.K. to maintain the capability to retake ground, “but equipment shortfalls are woeful.”
The crisis in the Royal Navy became all too apparent this year, when Britain’s navy had no attack ships in the Persian Gulf region, having withdrawn them from its base there. Following a Hezbollah-linked drone attack on Britain’s military base in Cyprus, Britain for a time had to rely on the French for defence.
But the truth is that the crisis in the navy has been increasingly clear for some time. In May, the aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales was forced to stop in Norway for repairs, apparently due to a broken propeller shaft, the same problem that forced her back into dock in summer 2022.
Analysing three core areas – the navy, land manoeuvre, and space – the report described the holes in defence readiness that Britain will need to fix if she is to once more become a serious Atlantic defence partner to the United States.
On land, Dannatt voiced concern over the state of 3rd (U.K.) Division, Britain’s leading warfighting unit: despite being the “tip of the spear” for NATO to retake ground if called upon, he described “insufficient” numbers of Challenger 3 tanks, as well as armoured vehicles.
The Challenger 3s are intended to enter service next year. But with 148 Challenger 3s on order, the division will be under-supplied by 42 tanks. Meanwhile only 100 of 623 planned Boxer armoured vehicles have arrived. The Boxers are the replacement for the now-outdated Warrior armoured vehicles, scheduled to leave service in only months. “Armoured infantry needs armour,” the report wryly advises.
Discussing the report in the Telegraph, Britain’s Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge MP observed: “We all know there are significant shortfalls in the defence investment plan. [Chancellor of the Exchequer] John Healey himself resigned over it and said we have got to get to 3 per cent of GDP. But this week both Wes Streeting [the Defence Secretary] and Burnham have completely failed to set out a timeline to reach this.”
Ben Obese-Jechty, a former infantry officer and now opposition Conservative Member of Parliament, told the Telegraph that the Third (U.K.) Division is “currently undeployable.” He added: “We’re effectively going into a conflict with one hand behind our back.” Britain lacks “a credible amount of mechanised infantry” and “[w]e’re bluffing our way through the fact we don’t have to deploy this stuff yet.”
The report’s focus on the philosophy of “deterrence by denial” is informed by British concerns about the rising threat of major conflict with Russia. This form of deterrence deters hostile action in advance by making it less likely to succeed, but the report suggests that the areas of land manoeuvre, the navy, and space are where the biggest gaps in credibility are to be found.
The ‘Manoeuvrist Approach’ – integrating forces to achieve battlefield supremacy – has been a traditional strength of the British Army. Instead of exchanging blows in a war of attrition, the British Army has depended on agility and speed to strike the enemy’s vulnerabilities.
The report finds that despite the growing importance of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), the Ukrainian conflict has nonetheless been dominated by capacity for manoeuvre.
Space warfare is another area that needs investment. Recently seen as another source of strength for Britain, the current Government intends to scrap the important narrowband ultra-high frequency (UHF) capacity in the upcoming Skynet 6 satellite system, just as other nations are making investments, inhibiting the aspiration to triple Britain’s force lethality. The report urges that this be reinstated.
But above all, the report’s biggest concern is the Royal Navy. The U.K. has not only cut its expeditionary land force capability but has seriously depleted its maritime capacities. Yet the British military’s most fundamental purpose should be defending Britain’s islands and overseas territories.
Prime Minister Burnham may yet complete Labour plans to give away to Mauritius Britain’s Indian Ocean Territory on the Chagos Islands (replete with Diego Garcia, an air force base of great strategical value to the United States). This plan has created outrage among the British public but has become emblematic of an apparent desire within the Labour Government to roll back Britain’s blue-water reach.
In December 2025, Britain’s First Sea Lord described the Royal Navy’s Atlantic Bastion strategy, including the Hybrid Navy concept (whereby crewed ships are increasingly joined by uncrewed vessels). Atlantic Bastion is intended to defend the U.K. from Russian threats in the North Atlantic by focusing on submarine-hunting capabilities. This aims for deterrence by denial in the High North, especially the strategic Greenland-Iceland-U.K. (GIUK) Gap, and to prevent Russia threatening Britain and its immediate NATO allies. Atlantic Bastion is also a response to the activities of the Russian spy ship Yantar, whose activities around British waters in 2025 apparently included monitoring undersea cables and pipelines.
However, the report expresses concern that the shift towards the Hybrid Navy led to the cancellation of the Type 83 destroyer, which was intended to replace the Type 45s that are now in service. Instead, the Royal Navy will spend £1.3bn on drone ships, plus six crewed Common Combat Vessels (CCVs) to deploy and control them.
The 878 report warns that Russian doctrine will think little of destroying uncrewed vessels: instead of cutting proven crewed platforms for untested marine drones, Britain should also replenish its conventional fleet. This means upgrading the Type 45 destroyers and extending the Type 45 program past 2035, as well as a serious shipbuilding plan: the Hybrid Navy should not be an “either-or”. We also need a “fleet in being.”
Lord Dannatt’s view seems to sum up a growing national mood: “neither our enemies nor our allies can quite believe that the British Government remains so complacent over our security.”
Dr. Radomir Tylecote is the CEO of 878 and a former Special Adviser to the Brexit Government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Robert Clark is Head of Defence at 878 and a former infantry soldier, having served in Iraq and Afghanistan.
image: HMS Queen Elizabeth (R08) docking in Oman for the final part of the CSG21 deployment (Royal Navy)