Has Tehran built back better when it comes to its ballistic missile infrastructure? That is the question set to decide how effective Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion by the U.S. and Israel, respectively, have been against the Islamic Republic of Iran this spring.

The Islamic Republic’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles is not a bargaining chip. It is an ideological imperative. The theocratic system that has ruled Iran since 1979 treats the acquisition of these capabilities as a religious and revolutionary duty, not a negotiable national interest. U.S. sanctions, diplomacy, and limited strikes have repeatedly demonstrated the same pattern: temporary Iranian setbacks followed by reconstitution. As long as the regime’s core ideology and coercive apparatus remain intact, the nuclear and missile programs will continue. Regime change is therefore not optional theater. It is the only durable way to remove the ideological driver itself.

American pundits love a simple story. Squeeze the Iranian elites hard enough with sanctions, blockade their oil, freeze their accounts, and the men who live in the shadows of power will finally feel the pinch on their villas, their Swiss transfers, and their children’s overseas educations. They will grow pragmatic. They will come to the table. They will trade the bomb and the axis of resistance for the chance to keep their fortunes and their comforts.