Has Tehran built back better when it comes to its ballistic missile infrastructure? That is the question set to decide how effective Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion by the U.S. and Israel, respectively, have been against the Islamic Republic of Iran this spring.

The Islamic Republic’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles is not a bargaining chip. It is an ideological imperative. The theocratic system that has ruled Iran since 1979 treats the acquisition of these capabilities as a religious and revolutionary duty, not a negotiable national interest. U.S. sanctions, diplomacy, and limited strikes have repeatedly demonstrated the same pattern: temporary Iranian setbacks followed by reconstitution. As long as the regime’s core ideology and coercive apparatus remain intact, the nuclear and missile programs will continue. Regime change is therefore not optional theater. It is the only durable way to remove the ideological driver itself.

U.S. military operations have degraded Iranian capabilities, but they have not altered Tehran's belief that it can outlast Washington or continue threatening neighboring Arab states and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. A coordinated revenue-denial campaign across five principal channels, beginning with Kharg Island's loading infrastructure, is more likely to produce a verifiable agreement than continued attrition alone. Although the administration has adopted important components of that strategy, the revenue channels that finance Iran's endurance remain substantially open.