3 Restaurant Stocks Likely to Surpass Q2 Earnings Expectations

We have identified — with the help of the Zacks Stock Screener — a few restaurant players that are set to outshine the Zacks Consensus Estimate this earnings season. These include The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE, BJ's Restaurants, Inc. BJRI and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG.

Before we discuss the companies, let us examine the factors likely to have shaped the restaurant industry’s second-quarter performance.

Factors At Play

The U.S. restaurant industry is likely to have faced an uneven operating environment in the second quarter of 2026. A volatile macroeconomic backdrop, geopolitical uncertainty and heightened competition are likely to have weighed on the respective company’s second-quarter performance. Elevated gas prices may have constrained consumers’ discretionary budgets, while affordability pressures remained particularly pronounced among lower-income consumers.

Elevated operating expenses are likely to have constrained profitability in the second quarter. Per the National Restaurant Association, total expenses for an average restaurant are projected to be 36% higher in 2026 than in 2019, with average hourly earnings and wholesale food prices up 41% and 35%, respectively, from pre-pandemic levels. Limited pricing flexibility, greater reliance on value promotions and elevated beef, pork, produce and seafood costs are likely to have weighed on restaurant-level margins.

Restaurant companies’ emphasis on meal deals, loyalty offers and digital promotions is likely to have supported transactions during the quarter under review. Heightened international travel and the FIFA World Cup likely increased restaurant spending in select urban and destination markets. Meanwhile, broader GLP-1 adoption may have shifted ordering preferences toward smaller portions and protein-focused offerings without materially weakening restaurant engagement.

Restaurant spending is likely to have remained resilient in nominal terms. Per the report, eating and drinking place sales reached a seasonally adjusted $102.5 billion in June, up slightly from $102.4 billion in May and marking the fourth monthly increase in five months. Inflation-adjusted sales rose 0.4% year over year and remained relatively flat in recent months. Restaurant companies with compelling value offerings, strong digital ecosystems, effective cost controls and flexible menus are likely to have been better positioned during the quarter.

How to Make the Right Pick?

Given the wide range of companies in this space, the task is by no means easy. While it is impossible to be sure of the outperformers, our proprietary methodology — a positive Earnings ESP, along with a favorable Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — makes it relatively simple. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP is our proprietary methodology for identifying stocks with high chances of delivering a surprise in their upcoming earnings announcements. It shows the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Our research shows that for stocks with the abovementioned combination, chances of a positive earnings surprise are as high as 70%.

Our Choices

Here we discuss in detail the three abovementioned restaurant companies that are likely to beat estimates this time around.

Cheesecake Factory is scheduled to report second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on July 28. CAKE has an Earnings ESP of +2.76% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

CAKE’s second-quarter results are likely to have benefited from new restaurant openings, menu innovation and stronger digital engagement. The rollout of its mobile app and more personalized Rewards offers is likely to have supported ordering frequency and customer acquisition, while solid momentum at Flower Child and disciplined restaurant execution may have aided sales and profitability. However, low-to-mid-single-digit commodity and labor inflation, higher marketing expenses and continued softness at North Italia are likely to have constrained margin expansion.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAKE’s fiscal second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) and revenues is pegged at $1.17 and $997.8 million, respectively. EPS estimates for the fiscal second quarter increased 2.6% in the past 60 days. CAKE has surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

BJ's Restaurants is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 30. BJRI currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.51% and a Zacks Rank #2.

BJ’s Restaurants’ second-quarter results are likely to have benefited from sustained traffic momentum, strong performance during the celebration season and increased marketing support. The Pizookie Meal Deal, seasonal Pizookies, enhanced pizza offerings and the premium Wagyu burger are likely to have supported guest frequency, menu mix and brand relevance, particularly among younger consumers. Continued improvements in restaurant execution, guest satisfaction and digital marketing efficiency are likely to have aided the company's performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BJRI’s to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and revenues is pegged at 87 cents and $374.6 million, respectively. EPS estimates for the second quarter increased 1.2% in the past 60 days. BJRI has surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once.

Chipotle is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 29. CMG currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.84% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Chipotle's second-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from restaurant expansion, menu innovation, stronger Rewards engagement and operational technology investments. The continued rollout of Chipotlanes, Chipotle Honey Chicken and Cilantro Lime Sauce, along with enhanced digital features, is likely to have supported transactions, customer frequency and sales mix. High-efficiency kitchen equipment and the Chipotle Kitchen digital make-line system may also have improved throughput, order accuracy and service execution. However, mid-single-digit food-cost inflation, particularly for avocados, dairy and beef, along with wage pressure and cautious consumer spending, is likely to have constrained restaurant-level margins.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chipotle's to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and revenues is pegged at 32 cents and $3.32 billion, respectively. EPS estimates for the second quarter have remained unchanged in the past 60 days. CMG surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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