The U.S. economy is showing a mixed picture this month, with the labor market losing momentum even as some indicators remain resilient. July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, far below expectations for an 83,000 gain, while previous months were revised sharply lower. The unemployment rate came in at 4.1% in July compared to June’s metric of 4.2%. Wage growth slowed to 0.1% for the month, and labor-force participation fell to 61.4%. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate edged down 0.1 percentage point sequentially to 61.4%, while the employment-population ratio fell 0.1 percentage point to 58.9%. The labor market is not flashing weakness everywhere.

On the inflation front, however, the picture looks more encouraging. July CPI rose 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year, easing from 3.5% in June. Core CPI increased 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year, down from June. The NFIB Small Business Index climbed to 99.8, its highest level since August 2025, while 20% of small-business owners planned to create jobs. The trade deficit also narrowed to $73.3 billion in June from $77.6 billion in May. Overall, the data suggest an economy that is cooling rather than collapsing, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more room to keep interest rates unchanged in September.

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