Can MCD's Value Reset Turn U.S. Traffic Weakness Into Sales Growth?

The EDAP rollout remains a key execution variable in the U.S. traffic recovery. Approximately 60%-65% of the U.S. system was adhering to the recommended pricing architecture for the 10-items-under-$3 platform, while consumer awareness remained below targeted levels. At the same time, the pullback in digital offers and discontinuation of Buy One, Add One for $1 reduced engagement among some high-frequency customers. McDonald’s estimated that these value-related execution issues accounted for roughly two-thirds of the traffic shortfall versus its expectations in the quarter.

McDonald’s is responding by bringing back national digital flash offers, increasing personalized promotions for high-frequency users and reallocating marketing dollars toward proven value platforms such as Extra Value Meals. The company is also working with franchisees to improve EDAP execution, with pricing and pricing compliance now considered in franchisee business reviews.

MCD’s ability to restore U.S. traffic growth will likely depend on whether its value reset can improve EDAP pricing execution, reengage frequent customers through digital offers and direct marketing support toward proven value platforms such as Extra Value Meals. These actions can help drive incremental visits and strengthen baseline momentum, making consistent execution across the franchise system central to the company’s effort to improve U.S. sales.

McDonald’s Competitor Landscape

Starbucks Corporation SBUX is demonstrating stronger U.S. traffic momentum as its Back to Starbucks turnaround gains traction. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, U.S. comparable sales increased 7.9%, driven by a 4.2% rise in transactions and 3.6% growth in average ticket, while pricing contributed less than one percentage point to ticket growth. Operational execution also improved under Green Apron Service, with Starbucks achieving target service times across access points despite higher transaction volumes. Meanwhile, the U.S. Rewards base reached 35.8 million 90-day active members. These trends reflect improving operating consistency, customer engagement and transaction momentum despite continued pressure on U.S. consumer sentiment.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG is also generating positive traffic while advancing value, digital engagement and restaurant execution under its Recipe for Growth strategy. Second-quarter 2026 comparable restaurant sales increased 2.2%, including a 1% transaction gain, while menu pricing contributed approximately 1.6%. Chipotle also reported improving guest perceptions of value, while new in-restaurant enrollment tools introduced following its Rewards relaunch drove a nearly 20% increase in daily enrollments since their launch. However, recent sales trends softened as consumer caution across the broader restaurant industry increased, pointing to a more challenging demand backdrop.

Against this setup, Starbucks and Chipotle are maintaining positive transaction growth while continuing to invest in restaurant execution, loyalty engagement and customer value. For McDonald’s, improving U.S. performance will likely depend on narrowing execution gaps across its value and digital initiatives while sustaining its improved affordability positioning in a still-challenging consumer environment.

SBUX’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of McDonald’s have declined 14.6% in the past year compared with the industry’s fall of 7.3%.

MCD’s One-Year Price Performance

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, MCD trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 6.51, above the industry’s average of 3.11.

MCD’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MCD’s 2026 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year rise of 5.6%. The EPS estimates for 2026 have increased in the past 30 days.

EPS Trend of MCD Stock

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

MCD’s Zacks Rank

MCD stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days

Just released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."

Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.9% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. 

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research