COTY Set to Report Q4 Earnings: Essential Insights for Investors

Factors Likely to Influence COTY’s Upcoming Results

Coty’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results are likely to reflect resilient beauty demand, particularly across fragrances and cosmetics, while consumer demand in developed markets remained broadly consistent with recent periods. Management expects moderate sequential improvement in both Prestige and Consumer Beauty, aided by easier year-over-year comparisons. 

However, continued disruption in the Middle East is likely to have weighed on sales, with Coty estimating a 2-3% impact on fourth-quarter revenues. Management expects fourth-quarter like-for-like or LFL revenues to be down by mid-single-digit percentage, with foreign currency having a broadly neutral impact.

Prestige trends are likely to have received support from Coty’s core fragrance franchises and recent innovation, including BOSS Bottled Beyond and Calvin Klein Euphoria Elixirs, while the June debut of Marc Jacobs Beauty marked the brand’s expansion into makeup. Consumer Beauty is likely to have seen improving U.S. trends at CoverGirl and Sally Hansen, supported by an increased focus on core franchises and more impactful innovation, although performance remained uneven.

On the margin front, lower shipments, tariffs and elevated excess and obsolescence are likely to have exerted pressure, partly offset by productivity and procurement initiatives. Coty expects adjusted gross margin contraction of 100-200 basis points year over year. 

Investments shifted from the third quarter to key fourth-quarter commercial periods (particularly Mother’s Day and Father’s Day) are likely to have supported brand investments during the quarter. Coty expects fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $85-$95 million and adjusted EPS, excluding the equity swap, between breakeven and a loss of 2 cents per share.

Earnings Whispers for COTY

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Coty this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Coty currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Target Corporation TGT currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.09% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The consensus estimate for the quarterly revenues is pinned at $26.1 billion, which indicates 3.4% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Target’s upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at $2.25, which implies 9.8% growth year over year. TGT delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.2%, on average.

Dollar General Corporation DG currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.61 and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $11.2 billion, which indicates an increase of 4.2% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dollar General’s second-quarter fiscal 2026 EPS is pegged at $2.00, implying 7.5% year-over-year growth. DG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 21%, on average.

Ross Stores, Inc. ROST currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.03% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The consensus estimate for Ross Stores’ quarterly revenues is pinned at $6.1 billion, which suggests 10.7% growth from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the upcoming quarter’s EPS is pegged at $1.92, which calls for a 10.7% jump year over year. ROST delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.2%, on average.

7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days

Just released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."

Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.9% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. 

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research