Essex Property to Post Q2 Earnings: Is the Stock a Portfolio Must-Have?

Over the trailing four quarters, Essex Property’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and missed on the other, the average surprise being 0.82%. The graph below depicts the surprise history of the company:

Let’s see how things have shaped up before this announcement.

US Apartment Market in Q2

The U.S. multifamily market entered the second half of 2026 with a clearer recovery taking shape, as strong renter demand and a rapidly shrinking supply pipeline began translating into lower vacancy and improving rent growth.

According to a Cushman & Wakefield report, net absorption reached roughly 124,600 units, up from 83,500 units in the first quarter and 8% above the prior year, making it the fifth-strongest quarter in nearly 25 years. The supply picture also became more favorable. Approximately 88,000 units were delivered during the quarter, down 27% year over year. Around 475,000 units remained under construction at quarter-end, equal to just 3.5% of existing inventory.

Improving demand and slowing supply pushed the national vacancy rate down 35 basis points quarter over quarter to 8.9%, its first move below 9% since 2024. On a trailing four-quarter basis, absorption of approximately 362,000 units exceeded deliveries of about 358,000 units for the first time since early 2022, indicating vacancy is likely to have passed its cyclical peak. The recovery was particularly pronounced in previously overbuilt markets: Austin; Charleston, SC; Savannah, GA; Huntsville, AL; Salt Lake City, UT, and Colorado Springs recorded some of the largest quarterly vacancy declines.

Rent growth remains modest but is beginning to improve. National asking rents reached approximately $1,945 per month, up 1.5% year over year, compared with 1.1% growth in the first quarter. The Bay Area led the recovery, with San Francisco rents rising 13%, San Jose 7% and the East Bay 4.8%. Norfolk, VA; Toledo; Reno, NV, and Boise, ID, also posted strong gains.

High-supply markets remained softer, with rents still declining in Austin and Sarasota, FL, although the pace of those declines moderated as excess supply was absorbed. Overall, the market appears to be shifting from stabilization into an occupancy-led recovery, with broader rent growth likely as the construction pipeline continues to shrink.

Factors to Consider Ahead of ESS' Upcoming Results

Essex’s Q2 2026 results are likely to benefit from peak-season leasing, high occupancy and limited new supply. The company entered the quarter with April occupancy at 96.4% and blended lease growth above 3%.

Northern California should remain the main growth driver, supported by tech activity, AI expansion and improving migration. Seattle also showed better momentum as lease rates turned positive in March and April. Southern California is likely to remain mixed.

Overall, the second quarter should show improving rent growth and stable occupancy, partly offset by higher expenses from delayed projects.

Projections for ESS' Q2 Results

The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $486.85 million for second-quarter revenues calls for a 3.62% increase year over year. The consensus estimate for same-property revenues is pegged at $445.99 million, up from $410.95 million in the year-ago period. The consensus mark for same-property financial occupancies is currently pegged at 96.20%, on par with the prior quarter.

For second-quarter 2026, Essex Property projected core FFO per share in the range of $3.92-$4.04 per share, with a midpoint of $3.98.

Before the second-quarter earnings release, Essex Property’s activities were inadequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly core FFO per share was revised southward in the past week to $4.03. It indicates no change year over year.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for ESS Stock

Our proven model predicts a surprise in terms of core FFO per share for Essex Property this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is the case here. 

Essex Property currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3 and has an Earnings ESP of +0.54%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are two other stocks from the broader REIT sector — Digital Realty Trust DLR and Cousins Properties CUZ— you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to report an FFO beat this quarter.

Digital Realty is slated to report quarterly numbers on July 23. DLR has an Earnings ESP of +2.30% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Cousins is slated to report quarterly numbers on July 30. CUZ has an Earnings ESP of +0.45% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO), a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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