FCX to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Offing for the Stock?

FCX’s shares have gained 36.6% in a year, underperforming the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s 40.7% rise.

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Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Our Model Unveils for FCX Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Freeport this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP  and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for FCX is +6.93%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second quarter is currently pegged at 60 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: FCX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

What do FCX’s Revenue Estimates Indicate?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s second-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $6,474 million, calling for a decline of 14.6% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.

Factors at Play for FCX Stock

Freeport’s second-quarter results are expected to reflect favorable copper prices. Copper prices started 2026 on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand from China and the United States. Structural tailwinds, including electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy projects, data center growth and grid modernization, continue to boost copper consumption. Worries about tightening supply amid rising EV and infrastructure demand also supported the red metal. These factors led to prices surging to roughly $6.4 per pound in late January. Prices of the red metal were mostly volatile during February, largely trading near $6 per pound. 

Copper prices came under pressure in March amid concerns about the impact of surging oil prices on the global economy due to the war in the Middle East. This dragged down prices to a three-month low of around $5.3 per pound in late March. Prices rebounded in April on hopes of a de-escalation in the Iran war. Prices shot up to around $6.6 per pound in May amid robust demand in China and supply worries linked to the Middle East conflict.

Copper surged to an all-time high near $6.7 per pound in early June on supply woes. Prices are currently hovering near $6.5 per pound. Our estimate for the second-quarter average realized copper price for FCX is $5.98 per pound, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 31.7%.

FCX’s results are likely to be unfavorably impacted by lower sales volumes due to the Grasberg mine incident. Freeport’s copper sales volumes tumbled approximately 25% year over year in the first quarter to 657 million pounds, and fell from 709 million pounds in the prior quarter. The downside primarily resulted from lower operating rates due to the temporary suspension of operations since the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia in September 2025. 

While the company’s outlook for copper sales volumes for the second quarter of 690 million pounds indicates a sequential improvement, it still suggests a 32% year-over-year decline.  For full-year 2026, consolidated sales volume projections were revised lower to around 3.1 billion pounds of copper from the prior view of 3.4 billion pounds due to an expected delay in achieving full ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave mine. Lower year-over-year sales volumes are expected to have weighed on its top line.

Higher unit costs are also likely to have affected the company’s performance in the June quarter. Its outlook for the second quarter suggests higher costs on a sequential basis. FCX expects unit net cash costs to rise to $2.24 per pound, while projecting a full-year average of roughly $1.95 (compared with $1.65 in 2025). The projected second-quarter unit cost reflects a roughly 98% year-over-year and 17% increase from the prior quarter. The uptick in costs reflects higher costs of energy and other consumables due to the Middle East conflict and persistent pressure on volumes.     

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider, as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW, scheduled to release earnings on July 28, has an Earnings ESP of +0.94% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for SHW’s earnings for the second quarter is currently pegged at $3.56.

Methanex Corporation MEOH, scheduled to release earnings on July 28, has an Earnings ESP of +0.06%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MEOH's earnings for the second quarter is currently pegged at $4. MEOH currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. 

Element Solutions Inc ESI, slated to release earnings on July 27, has an Earnings ESP of +1.54% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

The consensus mark for ESI’s second-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 43 cents.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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