FCX's Q2 Volumes Fall Y/Y on Lower Operating Rates: What Lies Ahead?

While the company’s third-quarter outlook for copper sales volumes of 750 million pounds indicates a sequential improvement, it still suggests a 23% year-over-year decline. In April 2026, the company lowered its consolidated sales volume projections for full-year 2026 to around 3.1 billion pounds of copper from the prior view of 3.4 billion pounds due to an expected delay in achieving full ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave mine. The company maintained that volume forecast in its second-quarter call.

Sales volume growth underpins Freeport’s ability to leverage higher copper and gold prices, maintain margin expansion and deliver on its targets. Despite gains in realized prices, lower expected volumes are likely to strain its financials. 

Among FCX’s peers, Southern Copper Corporation SCCO logged lower copper sales volumes in the second quarter. Southern Copper sold 220,712 tons of copper in the quarter, declining 1.5% year over year. Southern Copper also saw lower molybdenum sales volumes, which fell roughly 13.1% year over year. 

BHP Group Limited BHP saw lower year-over-year copper sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended June 30, 2026). BHP Group’s copper sales for the quarter fell roughly 8% year over year to 483.3kt. BHP Group’s fiscal 2026 copper output fell 7% year over year.

The Zacks Rundown for FCX

Shares of Freeport-McMoRan have rallied 63.7% in a year compared with the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s rise of 67.4%.

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From a valuation standpoint, FCX is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 20.8, an 8.9% discount to the industry average of 22.84X. It carries a Value Score of C.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 55.9% and 33.3%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.

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FCX stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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