Eli LillyLLY is a dominant player in the cardiometabolic market, backed by a strong and expanding GLP-1 portfolio. Its GLP-1 lineup includes Mounjaro and Zepbound (tirzepatide injections) for type II diabetes (T2D) and obesity, respectively, and the newly approved oral obesity therapy, Foundayo (orforglipron).
Lilly’s growth has been primarily fueled by the blockbuster success of Mounjaro and Zepbound, whose strong demand has made them the company’s primary revenue drivers. In the first quarter of 2026, the two drugs generated a combined $12.82 billion in sales, accounting for approximately 65% of Eli Lilly’s total revenues. Investors will be closely watching the sales performance of Mounjaro and Zepbound when LLY reports its second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 5.
Mounjaro and Zepbound have delivered strong growth in recent quarters, supported by expanded manufacturing capacity and continued international market expansion, with sales expected to remain strong in the second quarter of 2026. Mounjaro is the market leader in new prescriptions within T2D incretin analogs in both the United States and ex-U.S. markets. On the other hand, Zepbound also holds a leading market share in the branded obesity market with nearly 70% of new prescriptions. The robust momentum of its GLP-1 franchise is a key driver underpinning Eli Lilly’s upbeat 2026 revenue outlook of $82-$85 billion.
Investors will be most keen on learning the initial commercial performance of Foundayo when Eli Lilly reports its second-quarter results. Approved in the United States in April, the oral GLP-1 therapy offers a convenient pill alternative to injectable treatments and represents Lilly’s latest growth driver in the obesity market. Early launch trends appear encouraging, with insurance coverage expanding through major pharmacy benefit managers, supporting broader patient access. While Foundayo is unlikely to contribute meaningfully to second-quarter revenues given its recent launch, its initial uptake and management’s commentary will provide important insights into its long-term commercial potential and global rollout plans.
Beyond cardiometabolic health, Lilly’s broader portfolio, including the oncology drug Verzenio and immunology drug Taltz, also continues to deliver steady growth. The company’s newer drugs, including Omvoh and Ebglyss in immunology, Jaypirca in oncology, and Kisunla in neuroscience, are all contributing to top-line growth.
LLY’s Peers in the Obesity Space
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk NVO presently dominate the obesity market. Mounjaro and Zepbound directly compete with NVO’s semaglutide medicines, Ozempic for T2D and Wegovy for obesity. Like Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk also generates a substantial portion of revenues from both drugs.
Novo Nordisk had gained approval for an oral version of its obesity drug, Wegovy, in December 2025 and launched the pill in January 2026, which gave it a first-mover advantage over Foundayo. However, Lilly may be able to close the gap quickly now that it has launched Foundayo. Oral pills will be a more convenient alternative to the currently available once-weekly injectable obesity treatments like Zepbound and Wegovy.
The obesity space has garnered much of the spotlight over the past year due to the sizeable and still underpenetrated market opportunity. Smaller biotech firms, like Viking Therapeutics VKTX and Structure Therapeutics GPCR, are also advancing GLP-1–based therapies to challenge the incumbents. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed as both oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. Viking Therapeutics plans to advance oral VK2735 into phase III development for obesity in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Structure Therapeutics’ phase II ACCESS study on its orally administered GLP-1 RA, aleniglipron, demonstrated significant weight loss across all doses. Structure Therapeutics expects to initiate the late-stage program of aleniglipron in obesity in the second half of 2026.
LLY’s Stock Price, Valuation and Estimates
Shares of Eli Lilly have gained 8.2% year to date compared with the industry’s 10.5% growth. During the same time frame, the company has also underperformed the S&P 500, but outperformed the sector, as seen in the chart below.
LLY Stock Price Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, LLY stock is expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 28.76 forward earnings, higher than 18.78 for the industry. However, the stock is trading below its five-year mean of 34.56.
LLY Stock Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Estimates for Eli Lilly’s 2026 earnings have deteriorated from $35.69 to $34.21 per share in the past 60 days, and estimates for 2027 earnings have improved from $44.45 to $45.10 per share over the same time frame.
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