Is McDonald's a Buy Today as Lower Valuation Meets Execution Risk?

MCD Valuation Sits Near Its Five-Year Low

MCD trades at 21.57X forward 12-month earnings, only modestly above its five-year low of 21.17X and well below the five-year median of 25.99X. It also trades below the restaurant sub-industry at 26.54X, the sector at 23.76X and the S&P 500 at 26.14X.

Peer comparisons need context. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG primarily operates company-owned restaurants. Restaurant Brands International Inc. QSR, parent of Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs, had more than 95% of its systemwide restaurants franchised at year-end 2025. Different operating models can influence how investors value restaurant companies.

McDonald’s Earnings Growth Comes With a Sales Miss

Second-quarter adjusted earnings were $3.38 per share, up 6% year over year and 1.8% above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.32. Higher sales-driven franchised margins and other operating income supported the bottom line.

Revenues rose 4% to $7.10 billion but missed the consensus mark of $7.14 billion by 0.5%. Franchised restaurant margins increased 4.3% to $3.71 billion and represented roughly 90% of total restaurant margin dollars, helping offset a mixed top-line showing.

MCD Traffic Weakness Clouds U.S. Momentum

U.S. comparable sales increased 0.8% in the second quarter, driven by positive average check growth, including favorable product mix, partly offset by lower comparable guest counts. The result points to limited traffic momentum despite positive sales.

The pressure extended into July, when U.S. comparable sales were slightly negative. Management estimated that value execution issues caused about two-thirds of the second-quarter traffic shortfall versus expectations, while the FIFA campaign accounted for the remainder. Corrective actions may take time to affect results.

McDonald’s Growth Levers Offset Some Execution Risk

McDonald’s ended the quarter with nearly 220 million 90-day active loyalty users, up 13% year over year. Trailing 12-month systemwide sales to loyalty members increased more than 20% to $40 billion, while delivery generates more than $20 billion in annual systemwide sales.

Restaurant expansion remains another growth lever. McDonald’s plans to open about 2,600 restaurants in 2026, resulting in roughly 2,100 net additions, and expects net expansion to contribute about 2.5% to systemwide sales growth in constant currencies.

MCD Signals Favor Patience Over Aggression

The lower valuation improves the risk-reward discussion, but U.S. traffic weakness and execution gaps keep the case from looking decisive. Investors weighing a new position may want clearer evidence that value initiatives are rebuilding guest counts before treating the discount as a sufficient buy signal.

MCD currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), a VGM Score of D, Value Score of D, Growth Score of C and Momentum Score of B. The Rank supports a hold-oriented stance, while the D grades temper the valuation argument. The stronger Momentum Score offers an offset, but the overall score mix remains uneven rather than broadly favorable. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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