LLY's Foundayo Posts $98M in Q2 Sales: What's Next for the Oral GLP-1?

However, the second-quarter results show that Foundayo is still in the early stages of sampling, physician engagement and direct-to-consumer promotion, with its DTC expansion beginning in June and the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program becoming effective in July. Some investors initially expected the drug to generate around $1.2 billion-$1.6 billion in sales in 2026. With only $98 million recorded in the second quarter, a substantial sequential increase in the third and fourth quarters will be required to meet the initial expectations.

What Should We Expect in H2 2026?

The second half of 2026 should be considerably more important for Foundayo than the first half. On the second-quarter conference call, Lilly said that the U.S. launch of Foundayo is gaining momentum, supported by physician education and commercial access secured across all three major pharmacy benefit managers or PBMs in June. The U.S. prescriber base expanded to 36,000 from 8,000 mentioned on the first-quarter call. Moreover, the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program became effective in July, potentially improving access for eligible patients. On the second-quarter call, Lilly said that Foundayo’s prescriptions nearly doubled in the final week of July from a month earlier and Foundayo represented nearly one in four new starts.

Lilly is also continuing Foundayo’s international expansion. The pill is currently under regulatory review in more than 40 additional countries, with further approvals expected later this year. Lilly expects to launch Foundayo in most international markets by 2027.

Foundayo’s Multi-Indication Potential

Lilly expects Foundayo to become a multi-indication cardiometabolic opportunity. For the type II diabetes indication, Lilly has filed regulatory applications in several countries, including the United States, supported by the ACHIEVE phase III program. For several type II diabetes patients who prefer an oral option and have difficulty in reaching their glycemic targets, Foundayo has the potential to be a foundational daily oral treatment.

In addition to obesity and type II diabetes, Lilly is also evaluating Foundayo in six phase III studies for other diabetes and obesity-related diseases, with data from some of these expected later this year.

Foundayo's $98 million sales in the second quarter mark an early start for Lilly’s oral GLP-1, with the bigger test coming in the second half of 2026. Rising prescriptions, a broader U.S. prescriber base, expanded commercial access and the launch of the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program could support stronger uptake. Lilly is also pursuing international expansion and additional indications, including type II diabetes. If Foundayo continues to gain traction, it could become an important third pillar of Lilly’s GLP-1 franchise alongside Mounjaro and Zepbound, giving the company an oral option across the growing obesity and diabetes markets.

Race to Make Oral Obesity Pill Intensifies

Novo Nordisk had gained approval for an oral version of its obesity drug, Wegovy, in December 2025 and launched the pill in January 2026. Novo Nordisk announced sales of around $500 million (DKK 3.22 billion) from the Wegovy oral pill in its second-quarter results announced on Aug 4. Total prescriptions for Wegovy pill reached around 2.9 million in the second quarter. 

Novo Nordisk’s other novel oral candidate in its obesity pipeline is zenagamtide (previously amycretin), a single molecule combining GLP-1 + amylin, which is in phase III for obesity. Zenagamtide is being developed in both oral (tablet) and subcutaneous injection formulations.

While Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominate this space, smaller biotechs like Structure Therapeutics GPCR and Viking Therapeutics VKTX are also developing oral GLP-1 drugs for treating obesity.

Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity.  Viking plans to advance oral VK2735 into phase III development for obesity in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Structure Therapeutics recently initiated the phase III ACCOMPLISH program on its once-daily oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist, aleniglipron.

LLY’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Lilly’s stock has risen 13.5% so far this year compared with the industry’s increase of 12.6%.

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From a valuation standpoint, Lilly’s stock is expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 29.30 forward earnings, higher than 18.73 for the industry. However, the stock is trading below its 5-year mean of 34.57.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 has risen from $35.38 to $35.60 per share over the past 30 days, while that for 2027 has risen from $44.93 to $45.49 per share over the same timeframe.

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Lilly has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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