Moderna Q2 Earnings Loom: Buy or Sell the Stock Ahead of Results?

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MRNA’s Earnings Surprise History

The biotech’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 46.21%. In the last reported quarter, Moderna delivered an earnings surprise of 60.93%.

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What Our Model Predicts for MRNA

Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Moderna has an Earnings ESP of -2.41% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Shaping MRNA’s Upcoming Results

Moderna is likely to have reported product sales in the quarter from three marketed products — two COVID-19 vaccines (Spikevax and mNexspike) and an RSV vaccine (mResvia). A significant portion of product sales is expected to have come from the COVID-19 vaccines.

We expect minimal product sales of mResvia, attributed to stiff competition from competing RSV vaccines, Arexvy and Abrysvo, marketed by bigwigs GSK plc GSK and Pfizer PFE, respectively.

In April, Moderna secured approval in the EU for mCombriax (mRNA-1083), the first combination vaccine for active immunization against COVID-19 and influenza. This also marks the fourth marketed product in the company’s portfolio. Investors will likely seek updates from management on the commercialization plans for this vaccine, as well as Moderna’s timeline for FDA resubmission.

The initial filing for mCombriax was voluntarily withdrawn last year after the agency requested additional efficacy data for the flu component. This issue was addressed with positive late-stage data announced in June 2025, when the company’s standalone flu shot, mRNA-1010, demonstrated superior efficacy compared with GSK’s approved influenza vaccine. mCombriax integrates mNexspike with mRNA-1010.

Investors might also seek updates on Moderna’s commercialization plans for mRNA-1010, which is already under FDA review. Although a final decision is expected by next week, optimism has been building since last month, when an FDA advisory committee unanimously backed approval of the vaccine.

An important candidate in Moderna’s pipeline is intismeran autogene, a personalized cancer therapy being developed in collaboration with Merck MRK. The companies are already evaluating this therapy in three pivotal phase III studies — one in melanoma and two in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Moderna and Merck are also studying the therapy in various mid-stage studies for other cancer indications, such as bladder cancer and renal carcinoma. Investors will likely seek updates from management on the progress of this MRK-partnered therapy.

Nonetheless, a single quarter’s results are not important for long-term investors. Let us delve deeper to understand whether to buy, sell, or hold Moderna stock at present.

MRNA’s Stock Price Performance & Valuation

Year to date, Moderna’s shares have surged 89% compared with the industry’s 2% growth. The stock has also outperformed the sector as well as the S&P 500.

MRNA Stock Underperforms Industry, Sector & S&P 500

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From a valuation standpoint, Moderna is trading at a premium to the industry. Going by the price/sales (P/S) ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 9.91 times trailing 12-month sales value, higher than 2.35 for the industry.

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Our Investment Thesis on MRNA Stock

Moderna is navigating a challenging transition as demand for its COVID-19 vaccine continues to normalize, weighing on revenue growth. However, the company remains well positioned to execute its long-term strategy, supported by a strong balance sheet and an expanding mRNA-based pipeline. As of March 31, 2026, Moderna held approximately $8.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Combined with its ongoing cost-efficiency initiatives, this liquidity should support the company's research, development and commercialization efforts in the upcoming years.

Moderna's commercial performance outside COVID-19 has been mixed, with mResvia witnessing a slower-than-expected launch amid intense competition in the RSV vaccine market. Nevertheless, the company's broader respiratory vaccine franchise offers meaningful growth opportunities. Investors are closely watching the FDA review of mRNA-1010, which could become the company's next growth driver if approved. The EU approval of mCombriax further strengthens its respiratory vaccine portfolio and expands its presence in the annual vaccination market. Successful commercialization of these products could diversify Moderna's revenue base and reduce its reliance on COVID-19 vaccine sales.

Beyond vaccines, Moderna is leveraging its proprietary mRNA platform to expand into oncology, autoimmune diseases and cell therapy. Last month, the company outlined plans to develop therapies spanning cancer antigen treatments, T-cell engagers, cell therapy enhancers, in vivo CAR-T, in vivo CAR-M and tolerizing therapies. Although these programs remain in the early stages of development, they highlight the versatility of Moderna's platform and significantly broaden its long-term growth opportunities beyond vaccines.

How to Play the MRNA Stock?

While Moderna's premium valuation and recent downward estimate revisions warrant caution, we believe existing investors should maintain their positions. With the FDA decision on mRNA-1010 approaching, the recent EU approval of mCombriax and a deep pipeline spanning oncology and other therapeutic areas, the company remains well positioned to drive growth beyond COVID-19 vaccines.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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