How GOP Can Pull Off an Upset in Minnesota

Yet when the smoke cleared on August 11, it was Lisa Demuth, not Lindell, walking away as the Republican nominee for Minnesota governor. She beat Lindell by more than 40,000 votes and 11 points.

Many political watchers are well aware of who Mike Lindell is thanks to his ubiquitous MyPillow ads, support for Trump, and his propensity for conspiracy theories. So who is Lisa Demuth, the woman who defeated Lindell? Currently the speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives, Demuth has been in Minnesota politics for years. A non-celebrity at the national level, Demuth instead banked on her experience in local politics resonating with Minnesotans

It wasn’t just Demuth’s positive qualities, but Lindell’s negative ones that mattered in the primary. An adage about elections is that you make it easy to vote for you and difficult to vote for your opponent. Lindell didn’t need Demuth’s help; he did a fine job on his own of making it difficult for people to vote for him. His wacky personality and plethora of baggage made voting an easy decision for voters who were undecided going into the primary.

Lindell’s fraud claims notwithstanding, Demuth is now free to focus on the general election. While Demuth is the most electable candidate of the three Republican contenders, she faces an uphill battle this November. If elections are a snapshot in time, 2026 is not a good time to be a Republican. President Trump’s approval numbers are in the 30s, and that’s at a national level. Minnesota is particularly hostile to the president, thanks in large part to the ICE operations over the past year.

Election history in Minnesota also doesn’t paint a pretty picture. While Trump only lost the state by 4 percentage points, Minnesota hasn’t voted Republican since Richard Nixon in 1972. Even the governor’s race is only slightly rosier. Minnesota hasn’t had a Republican governor since Tim Pawlenty left office in 2011.

Demuth’s road to the governorship gets even more challenging thanks to her opponent: multi-term Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Widely perceived as a moderate, Klobuchar’s experience and status in Democrat-dominated Minnesota make her the heavy favorite. More importantly, Klobuchar’s time in the Senate allows her to deny blame for the fraud scandals.

Let’s talk about fraud. Under incumbent Gov. Tim Walz, hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars were stolen. While many are going to jail over the fraud, Minnesotans want comprehensive accountability, something both Demuth and Klobuchar are promising. To have a shot at victory, Demuth has to make the fraud an issue not just for Klobuchar but for Democrats as a whole. Amy Klobuchar may not have overseen the state government, but she can’t escape the fact that her party was in charge while it happened. Worse for Democrats, the fraud was ultimately discovered at the federal level, not at the state. 

Not only does Demuth have to pin the fraud on Democrats, but she also has to paint herself as the right person to address it. For that, she must sell voters on her credentials in fighting fraud. For example, as speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives, Demuth helped create the Fraud Prevention Agency Oversight Committee in response to fraud.

The economy will also be an issue in the election, as Minnesota ranks in the bottom half for economic performance. High personal and corporate taxes are one of the reasons for this sluggish performance. At a time when many Americans are pessimistic about the economy, Demuth must run on a pro-growth agenda that delivers growth and makes Minnesota more competitive.

Winning in November isn’t just about saying the right things; it’s about avoiding the right things, or, at the very least, avoiding the blame for certain things. With 2026 being a midterm election, Trump will be an issue in every state. An unpopular president spells trouble for other members of his party. As a Republican, Democrats are going to try to tie Trump’s policies to Lisa Demuth. To counter this, Demuth needs to make clear that she is her own woman, not beholden to the whims of President Trump.

Republicans across the country are facing a tough road this November; Minnesota will be no different. Lisa Demuth has already proven she can overcome a nationally recognized candidate and come out on top. If she sticks to local issues and can distance herself from Trump, Demuth has a chance at becoming governor.