After Alaska’s ‘final four’ primary, a silent primary may decide who’s on the ballot in November

Republicans have been talking about similar maneuvers for months, with one prominent Republican group going so far as to run ads urging lower-finishing candidates to withdraw in order to consolidate the vote in November.

“Both sides are trying to figure out: What does the top four look like? And how are we best positioned for success?” said Bernadette Wilson, one of the leading Republican candidates for governor in Alaska’s 17-person race.

Under Alaska’s election system, the top four vote-getters — regardless of political party — advance to the November general election. That may mean multiple Republicans or Democrats on the same ballot, competing for the same votes.

In November, voters in the general election will be asked to rank those four candidates in order of preference. 

After all the votes are in, the candidate with the fewest number of first-choice preferences is eliminated. Any voters who ranked that candidate first will have their votes go to their second choice.

The process repeats until only two candidates are left. 

In theory, that means no vote splitting. Anyone whose favorite candidate is eliminated can instead vote for someone else.

In practice, some Alaska voters ranked only one or two candidates in the 2022 and 2024 statewide elections, leading to an unusual number of “exhausted” ballots whose votes went to neither of the final two candidates. 

Two years ago, that led to large amounts of post-primary maneuvering as lower-finishing candidates withdrew from races in order to force unfavorable matchups for one top finisher or another.

In the U.S. House race, two top Republican finishers withdrew after the primary, which put imprisoned Democratic U.S. House candidate Eric Hafner into the final four.

That November, Hafner was eliminated first, and fewer than half his votes transferred to the other Democrat, then-incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola. 

That was less than Peltola’s margin of defeat — Peltola was defeated by current Rep. Nick Begich III, R-Alaska — but in a closer race, it could have been decisive.

Now, as Peltola runs for U.S. Senate against incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, a similar strategy is playing out. 

National groups have spent more than $2 million in an attempt to boost lesser-known candidates into the final four and potentially split the field. 

Dan J. Sullivan, unrelated to the incumbent senator, is on the ballot but told the Chicago Tribune that he’s uncertain whether he will remain in the race if he makes the top four. 

In the 17-person race to replace Gov. Mike Dunleavy — who is term-limited and unable to run this year — candidates have been talking for over a year about whether or not they will be willing to bow out after the primary.

Wilson entered the race in May 2025 and promptly pledged to withdraw after the primary if she finished behind another Republican. It’s a pledge she’s renewed since then.

“I don’t think that it’s smart to carry on. … I don’t think that we need any more division as we head into November. I don’t think that it’s smart to split up the voting base, the volunteers that help, I don’t think it’s smart to split up the finances,” she said.

Wilson also said that having multiple candidates from the same party risks denying the eventual winner a mandate — a margin of victory so large that it gives the winner political backing to implement their platform.

“I think it’s important that a governor win by a strong strongest margin as possible, because I think that it’s important for the stability and the unity of the state past November,” she said.

Wilson has also been campaigning hard to repeal Alaska’s current elections system with Ballot Measure 2, which will come in front of voters in November.

Post-primary juggling is evidence that ranked choice voting doesn’t work, she said.

Supporters of the state’s elections system and some detractors have said that it dilutes the influence of the Republican and Democratic parties. Wilson doesn’t see it that way. 

“I think it’s just made it worse,” Wilson said. “I think it’s handed more power to backroom conversations, and I just don’t think the public’s gonna like it.”

Jenny-Marie Stryker, executive director of the Alaska Democratic Party, was traveling on Friday and unavailable for an interview, a spokesman said. Carmela Warfield, chair of the Alaska Republican Party, did not respond to an email.

The Valley Republican Women, an influential group based in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, has an ongoing ad campaign that urges Republicans to “vote the primary, consolidate the vote” and “don’t split the field.” 

Julia Anastos, campaign manager for the group opposing Ballot Measure 2, said by email that gamesmanship isn’t new in Alaska.

“Parties and political insiders will always strategize about who should run and who should drop out. These kinds of maneuvers happen under a partisan primary as well, like in the 2014 and 2018 gubernatorial races, when would-be spoiler candidates dropped out to clear the lane for a stronger candidate,” she said. “Under our system now, ranked choice voting addresses that spoiler effect and ensures the winning candidate has earned majority support.”

The issue of what to do after the primary was a key issue at a forum earlier this month in Soldotna, when five candidates were directly asked about the issue.

“I would stay in,” nonpartisan candidate Meda DeWitt told forum attendees. 

As a nonpartisan, she sees herself able to attract second-choice votes from both Republicans and Democrats.

“I actually appreciate ranked choice voting because your vote is not lost if your top pick doesn’t get in,” she said.

Adam Crum, a Republican candidate and former Dunleavy cabinet official, said he thinks there’s an advantage to having multiple Republicans in the general election.

“It actually does make more sense for more conservatives to stay in it, because you actually work together,” he said. 

In the 2022 special election to replace Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska, Republican candidates Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III frequently fought each other on the campaign trail. That turned off Republican voters, Crum noted. 

During the current primary election campaign, he said, “We have actually done a very good job … of actually working together and pushing forward ideas.”

A cordial campaign keeps voters involved and going to the polls, he said.

“You actually increase the ceiling, and the math actually works out. I’m a numbers guy. Over time, it does work,” Crum said.

Matt Heilala, a podiatrist and Republican who has put more than $1.5 million of his own money into a campaign for governor, said that last year, “I had the thought that I would immediately withdraw because we saw what happened with Sarah and Nick.”

Now, he’s not as sure. What if there’s “an indictment, an October surprise, some kind of a shenanigan that the opposing party is going to play on the person that is 10 votes ahead of me, and they’re just waiting for me to leave?” he asked. 

In that case, having another Republican would be helpful, he suggested.

Dave Bronson, the former Anchorage mayor and Republican candidate for governor, said he intends to reserve his options until he sees what happens in the primary.

“The notion that I would stand up and say at this point in time I’ll absolutely get out if I’m No. 2 on the Republican side — that’s foolishness,” he said.

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