Preliminary 2027 forecast for Alaska’s Bristol Bay fishery predicts more, smaller sockeye

Preliminary forecasts from the University of Washington for the celebrated Bristol Bay wild sockeye fishery are looking at a run of 45 million fish next year, up from the 2026 forecast of 41.5 million. But run size is just one of many factors under consideration.

Fish size is one of those factors: 45 million big fish have more meat — and a bigger economic effect — than 45 million smaller fish. The size of the fish also helps determine which products the processors will produce.

“When we get really big returns the fish are smaller for their age, because they are competing for their food,” said salmon researcher Daniel Schindler of the University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences. “We estimate how many fish of each age class are coming back.” 

For 2027 that preliminary estimate is 20 million fish that have spent three years in the ocean — known as three ocean fish — and 30 million fish that have spent two years in the ocean in 2027. Because there are more fish that have spent less time in the ocean, the overall catch will be smaller.

But the climate can affect how much of that forecast becomes a reality.

“The climate factor is baked into the number of fish we see,” Schindler said.  “The fish tell us how well they survived, so if it was a bad climate year we see it early in the numbers of young fish.”

The University of Washington and Alaska Department of Fish & Game both compile data on the Bristol Bay fishery. ADF&G compiles data on Bristol Bay using counting towers. Researchers at the University of Washington go to the spawning grounds and count the fish there. The two methods help inform a more accurate forecast.

The industry would like to increase the amount of domestically-caught fish that Americans consume. According to NOAA Fisheries, the national average consumption of domestically-caught seafood remains relatively flat at 19 pounds per person, with 80% of that seafood coming from foreign imports.  

An ongoing campaign of the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute focuses on boosting retail consumption of the Alaska catch, including an abundance of salmon, with an eye to how the economy, climate and marketing conditions are evolving. Planning for domestic and overseas markets for the coming year gets underway annually on July 1, with a concentration on harvest information, consumer trends and preferences and numerous other factors, said Greg Smith, communications director for ASMI. 

Smith said the organization’s emphasis is on the wild-caught harvest, the people who catch and process the harvest and the health,nutrition and sustainability of well managed fisheries. ASMI focuses on helping consumers overcome barriers to seafood purchases such as a lack of confidence in preparing seafood, uncertainty on sourcing and sustainability of fisheries, cost of product and convenience, he said. ASMI also focuses on ensuring younger generations become strong seafood consumers.

Harvest forecasts for Alaska’s 2026 salmon fisheries of 125.5 million fish were about 36% lower than a year earlier, resulting in prices per pound in retail shops being higher overall than in 2025. But with fewer fish for sale fewer are likely to be left in inventory for 2027, said fisheries economist Gunner Knapp. Such conditions could keep prices stable in the coming season.  

Long term growth in seafood production is dependent on consumer demand as well as selling fish in product forms that meet consumer demand. Both are important, Knapp said.

As of late July average prices of wild Alaska salmon fillets in the Anchorage area were $13.99 to $26.99 a pound, with sockeye and coho on the lower end and king salmon on the higher end. At Seattle’s Pike Place Fish Market the price of fresh wild Alaska sockeye fillets was holding steady at $29.99 a pound.

The bulk of seafood produced in the U.S. is consumed internationally, so the industry continues to turn its eyes to home — but there is competition from low prices from foreign markets. That fish may not be sustainably sourced with ethical labor practices. “U.S. domestic markets are increasingly important, so in many parts of the U.S. at higher end retail outlets you can find wild Alaska sockeye salmon for sale,” he said.

Knapp characterizes commercial fisheries as a risky business.

“Lots of opportunity and lots of risk, but the resources are so big and so valuable that there will always be a seafood industry in Alaska,” he said. “Only aquaculture has potential to grow.”

Aquaculture is when the fish are not wild caught but cultivated or raised in hatcheries.

“The reason I’ve observed so much more innovation in aquaculture than in wild stocks is that aquaculture is far more able to take advantage of technological innovation than wild fisheries because aquaculture has so much greater control of production,” Knapp said.

“Still because wild fisheries are much older they have stronger cultural traditions, with more dependent communities less receptive to innovation, although they may have more political power,” he said.

Meanwhile, NOAA Fisheries is working to calculate many climate factors affecting the state’s commercial fisheries, from winds and ocean currents to ocean temperatures and precipitation. For salmon, the varying and changing climate impacts winter snowpack, ice cover, growing season lengths and streamflow, said Nate Mantua, a physical scientist at NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center in La Jolla, California.

“Right now there is a great deal of media attention on the developing El Nino event in the tropical Pacific,” Mantua said. “This is likely to impact Alaska’s winter and spring climate in 2027.” 

El Nino is a climate pattern defined by unusually warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, weakening trade winds and global weather disruptions.  

The current forecast for Alaska’s winter includes increased odds for a warmer than average winter, and increased odds for above average precipitation in Southcentral Alaska and below average precipitation around Norton Sound.

“Another large factor in seasonal forecasts relates back to climate change and the fact that most every winter in the past decade has been warmer than winters before the 2000s,” Mantua said.

“Our ability to predict future climate is limited to about one year in advance and NOAA has an operational forecasting effort provided by the Climate Prediction Center.” 

The rise in greenhouse gas concentrations have caused ocean warming and increased acidification, which is bad for salmon.

University of Washington fisheries researchers have started producing a preliminary report to come out  the third week of August on the 2027 salmon fishery. Its formal preseason river by river forecast will come out in November, after ADF&G finishes collating its data on a river by river forecast.

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