With PNW electricity demand surging, planners map out major grid upgrades

Last year, the Northwest Power and Conservation Council forecast regional electricity demand to increase anywhere from 50% to 100% over the next 20 years. That’s largely due to data centers, the electrification of vehicles and buildings, and population growth.

On Thursday, the council released a draft of its Ninth Power Plan. Deemed by one councilmember as the “roughest of drafts,” it will serve as a guide on the region’s path to meeting future electricity demand. Public comment for the draft is open until Oct. 16. 

The plan calls on Washington, Oregon, Idaho and western Montana to add 11,000 megawatts to the region’s grid. That’s about a third of the electricity the Northwest uses at peak demand, such as during a heat wave.

Getting there won’t be easy, and the plan doesn’t rely solely on renewable energy. 

“No single resource on its own will be able to meet our growing need for energy in the future,” said Jennifer Light, director of power planning. “Rather, a regional portfolio of cost-effective resources will achieve the right balance of economics, efficiency, reliability, and adequacy.”

Across the four-state region, the plan includes 9,000 megawatts of renewables and 2,100 megawatts of natural gas. 

In Washington, the plan calls for adding between 500 MW and 1,250 MW of natural gas to the grid by 2032. That is in accordance with the state’s clean energy policies, said Peter Jensen, a spokesperson for the council. 

While the plan directs the largest power wholesaler in the region, the Bonneville Power Administration, on which resources it should acquire, it also influences the decisions of other electricity providers in the region. The BPA operates under the U.S. Department of Energy and owns approximately 75% of the Pacific Northwest’s grid.

Throughout the two-year planning process, the BPA has “consistently expressed concerns” over the costs and complexity of the council’s energy conservation recommendations. 

This part of the plan focuses on how technology like efficient appliances, as well as building code changes, can reduce electricity demand. The region has spent billions on these types of upgrades over the last decade, according to the plan.

The BPA also questions whether the council’s proposed strategy would be less favorable for utility customers in Idaho and Montana, compared to Oregon and Washington, when it comes to providing access to energy efficiency assistance programs. 

The plan was created amid a great deal of uncertainty. Council staff pointed out that it was a challenge to predict how much electricity will be needed to supply data centers. Also unknown is how fast the region can upgrade and expand transmission line capacity and how extreme weather events could strain the grid. 

The council has published regional power plans about every five years since 1983, to lay out how the region will maintain an affordable and adequate power supply. The latest plan is expected to be finalized either by the end of this year or the beginning of 2027. 

The Northwest Power and Conservation Council was formed in 1981 following the passage of the federal Northwest Power Act. That act directed the four states to work together on regional energy planning and to stop the decline of native Columbia Basin fish species, which is primarily due to the development of hydroelectric dams in the region.