Pfizer Stock Ahead of Q2 Earnings: To Buy or Not to Buy?

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PFE’s Earnings Surprise History

The healthcare bellwether’s performance has been solid, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 21.93%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 5.63%, as seen in the chart below.

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What Does Our Model Say?

Pfizer has an Earnings ESP of +2.07% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present, indicating a likely positive surprise.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Per our proven model, companies with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, #2 (Buy), or #3 have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Factors Shaping PFE’s Upcoming Results

Higher sales of products like the Vyndaqel family, Eliquis, Padcev and Lorbrena are likely to have driven top-line growth. Among the newer products, sales of Nurtec ODT/Vydura, Cibinqo and RSV vaccine, Abrysvo, are expected to have risen.

However, sales of some other key products like Enbrel are likely to have declined. Also, lower revenues from COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, are likely to have hurt top-line growth.

Expectations for PFE’s Primary Care Segment

In Primary Care, alliance revenues and direct sales from Bristol-Myers BMY for Eliquis are likely to have risen, driven by higher demand trends globally, partially offset by price and generic erosion in some ex-U.S. markets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues from Eliquis is $1.98 billion.

As regards sales of key vaccine Prevnar, higher sales in ex-U.S. markets are likely to have been offset by the impact of lower demand in the United States.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.39 billion.

Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech BNTX, for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Revenues from Pfizer/BioNTech’s Comirnaty are likely to have declined in the second quarter due to narrower COVID-19 vaccine recommendations in the United States that have reduced Comirnaty’s eligible patient population and subsequently its demand. Sales of the antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid, should also have declined due to lower infection rates and lower international government purchases.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty is $278.0 million, while that for Paxlovid is $119.0 million.

Sales of Abrysvo are likely to have gained from launch uptake in some international markets, partially offset by weaker vaccination rates in the United States.

Expectations for PFE’s Oncology Segment

Pfizer’s oncology sales in the second quarter are expected to have been driven by higher sales of key drugs like Padcev, Lorbrena and the Braftovi-Mektovi combination, which should make up for declining sales of drugs like Ibrance and Adcetris. Sales of the new drug, Elrexfio, are also likely to have risen in the quarter.

Sales of oncology biosimilars are likely to have risen year over year and contributed to the oncology segment’s growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Padcev is $661 million, while that for Ibrance is $1.05 billion.

Expectations for PFE’s Specialty Care Segment

In the Specialty Care unit, sales of the Vyndaqel family are expected to have risen, as higher sales in international markets may offset lower revenues in the United States. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the Vyndaqel family is $1.75 billion.

While sales of Xeljanz rose, those of Enbrel declined in the first quarter, a trend likely to have continued in the second quarter.

On the second-quarter conference call, Pfizer is expected to provide an update on its 2026 financial guidance.

Nonetheless, a single quarter’s results are not so important for long-term investors. Let us delve deeper to understand whether to buy, sell or hold Pfizer stock.

PFE Stock’s Price & Valuation

Pfizer’s stock has risen 6.7% so far this year compared with an increase of 14.8% for the industry.

PFE Stock Outperforms Industry

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From a valuation standpoint, Pfizer appears attractive relative to the industry and is trading below its five-year mean. Going by the price/earnings ratio, Pfizer’s shares currently trade at 8.73 forward earnings, significantly lower than 19.11 for the industry as well as the stock’s five-year mean of 9.31.

PFE Stock Valuation

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Investment Thesis on PFE Stock

Pfizer’s dependence on its COVID business has now reduced. Its non-COVID operational revenues are improving, driven by key in-line products like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis, new launches and newly acquired products like Nurtec and those from Seagen. In 2026, Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products to record continued double-digit growth.

Pfizer is one of the largest and most successful drugmakers in the oncology space. Oncology sales comprise around 27% of its total revenues. Pfizer has also ventured into the oncology biosimilars space and markets six biosimilars for cancer. Pfizer is advancing its oncology clinical pipeline across areas such as breast, thoracic, gastrointestinal and blood cancer. By 2030, it expects to have eight or more blockbuster oncology medicines in its portfolio.

The company is also trying to rebuild its pipeline through acquisitions. Seagen, Metsera and Biohaven are the most significant strategic acquisitions in recent years. Pfizer’s significant cost reduction and efforts to improve R&D productivity measures are also driving profit growth. Pfizer’s dividend yield stands at around 7%, which is also impressive.

The company expects its recently launched and acquired products and a strong pipeline to help revive top-line growth toward the end of the decade.

However, Pfizer faces several challenges in the near term. Pfizer is seeing declining sales of its COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, due to lower vaccination rates and COVID infection rates.

Pfizer faces a significant patent cliff later this decade. Pfizer expects a significant negative impact on revenues from the loss of exclusivity (“LOE”) cliff in the 2026-2030 period as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Ibrance, Xeljanz and Xtandi, face patent expirations.

Pfizer’s revenue and earnings guidance for 2026 indicates mostly flat to slightly negative growth. An update is expected on the second-quarter 2026 conference call.

Stay Invested in PFE Stock

Pfizer is navigating a difficult transition following the sharp decline in COVID-related sales. The market is concerned about Pfizer’s ability to replace declining COVID-related revenues and offset upcoming patent expirations through new product launches, pipeline development and contributions from acquisitions.

Despite these challenges, Pfizer's valuation is relatively inexpensive compared with many large pharmaceutical peers, and the stock offers one of the highest dividend yields in the sector. The company is rebuilding its pipeline in oncology and obesity, which it believes can drive growth in 2028 and beyond. Although Pfizer’s 2026 sales guidance indicates minimal growth, the company expects a high single-digit revenue CAGR for five years starting in 2029.

Pfizer expects the growth to be driven by its advancing R&D pipeline and the continued progress of new and acquired products. Long-term investors may consider retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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