Pre-Markets Up on De-escalation of Middle East War

June Trade Deficit Slightly Deeper than Expected

The U.S. Trade Balance for June came in at a deficit of -$73.3 billion, slightly worse than the -$72.9 billion projected, but a nice improvement month over month — -$77.6 billion reported for May, and well off the all-time low -$133 billion back in March of 2025. Both Imports and Exports lightened their loads compared to the prior month.

Q2 Earnings Parade: CAT, MCD, BP & More

Caterpillar CAT shares are up +11.3% at this hour, giving a big boost to the blue-chip Dow index. Earnings of $8.17 per share amounted to a +30.72% earnings beat, as the company continues to benefit from the physical data center buildout trend. The stock is still a ways from the late-June all-time highs above $1000 per share, but a strong showing this morning, nevertheless.

McDonald’s MCD outperformed bottom-line estimates in its Q2 this morning by 6 cents to $3.38 per share. Revenues came in slightly below expectations, however, with overall same-store sales coming in-line overall, with some weakness in U.S. sales. Shares are up slightly, but still down double-digits, year to date.

BP’s BP Q2 showed a solid bottom-line beat, with earnings of $2.22 per share versus $1.98 forecast, for a +12% earnings surprise. The oil & gas supermajor plans to sell off its North Sea business, and shares are selling off a bit: -1.4% at this hour, but still up more than +25% year to date.

Archer Daniels Midland ADM added to its strong 2026 performance with a +29.6% earnings beat: $1.84 per share versus $1.42 in the Zacks consensus. Revenues came in a tad light, but biofuels showed promise. Shares are up +2.6% this morning, adding to its +35% gains year to date.

On the other side, Spotify SPOT disappointed with a -7.34% earnings surprise this morning — $3.03 per share versus $3.27 projected — and shares are down -6.2% in early market trading. This takes down the stock further from its -16% losses since the start of the year.

After the closing bell this afternoon, we expect earnings results from chip giant AMD AMD, biopharma major Amgen AMGN and travel platform Booking.com BKNG, among many others. We continue with the busiest week of Q2 earnings season even as many of the marquee names have already reported.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Today

The first of the “Jobs Week” data hits the tape after the opening bell today, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for June. Estimates have rolled back slightly to 7.4 million from 7.6 million job openings reported a month ago. Job Quits remain subdued, keeping with the “low hire/low fire” labor market.

Factory Orders for June are expected to come in positive again, to +0.3%, after posting a negative -1.3% for May, which was the first down month of 2026. A big drop in non-defense aircraft orders skewed the numbers a bit a month ago. That said, if the headline number disappoints and comes in negative again, it will be the first time we’ve seen back-to-back negative prints since last summer.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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