Progressive (PGR) Up 1.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Progressive's Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Premiums Rise Y/Y

The Progressive Corporation’s second-quarter 2026 earnings per share of $4.85 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.2%. The bottom line, however, decreased 6.1% year over year.

Behind the Headlines

Net premiums written were $21.1 billion in the quarter, up 5% from $20.1 billion a year ago. 

Net premiums earned grew 6% to $21.6 billion. The reported figure met the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Net realized gains on securities were $604 million, up 56% year over year.

Combined ratio — the percentage of premiums paid out as claims and expenses — deteriorated 110 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter’s level to 87.1.

June Numbers in Details

Operating revenues grew 2.5% year over year to $7.6 billion, driven by 2.1% higher net premiums earned, a 11.5% increase in net investment income, a 2% rise in fees and other revenues, and 6.7% higher service revenues. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.2%.

Total expenses rose 6.1% to $6.6 billion, attributable to 5.3% higher losses and loss adjustment expenses, a 0.6% increase in policy acquisition costs, a 12.5% rise in other underwriting expenses, and a 8.5% increase in service expenses.

June Policies in Force

Policies in force were solid in the Personal Lines segment, up 8% from the year-ago month’s figure to 38.9 million. Special Lines improved 7% to 7.3 million.

In the Personal Auto segment, Agency Auto increased 8% year over year to 11.2 million, while Direct Auto increased 10% to 16.7 million.

Progressive’s Commercial Auto segment policies rose 3% year over year to 1.2 million. The Property business had 3.6 million policies in force, up 1%.

Financial Update

Progressive’s book value per share was $59.05 as of June 30, 2026, up 6.2% from $55.62 as of June 30, 2025.

Return on equity in June 2026 was 32.5%, down from 43.6% reported in the year-ago period. The total debt-to-total capital ratio deteriorated 210 bps to 19.6.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

Currently, Progressive has a average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Progressive has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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