Rivian Gears Up to Report Q2 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIVN's quarterly revenues implies a year-over-year growth of 21.2%. The company's earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, delivering an average surprise of 2.44%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Q1 Highlights

Rivian posted a reported loss of 55 cents per share in the first quarter of 2026, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 60 cents, delivering a positive earnings surprise of 7.7%. Quarterly revenues came in at $1.38 billion, topping the consensus mark of $1.37 billion by 1% and rising 11.4% year over year. Higher delivery volumes and strong software and services execution were key supports for the quarter.

Things to Note

Rivian produced 12,613 vehicles at its Normal, IL, manufacturing facility in the second quarter, up from 5,979 vehicles in the same period last year. It delivered 12,194 vehicles, up from 10,661 vehicles in the same period last year. Its deliveries exceeded its quarterly guidance of 9,000 to 11,000 vehicles, driven by strong sequential growth in EDV and R1 deliveries, along with the launch of R2 deliveries.

Also, Rivian is benefiting from engineering optimizations, supply chain savings and lower commodity costs. The second-generation R1 models have reduced material costs while operational efficiencies at the Normal plant further support cost-cutting efforts. R2 model's material costs are expected to be nearly 50% lower than R1’s, and other production costs are also halved. Rivian expects gross profit to witness a year-over-year uptick in 2026.

An increase in vehicle deliveries and an expected increase in gross profits are likely to have bolstered Rivian’s second-quarter results. 

However, funding autonomy, R2 launch activities and expansion of sales and service coverage are hurting the company’s EBITDA. Rivian expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss in the range of $1.8-$2.1 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, adjusted EBITDA loss was $472 million, reflecting the cost of scaling these programs ahead of the volume ramp. Rising expansion efforts and R2 launch spending are likely to have hurt the company’s operating margins in the to-be-reported quarter.

Let’s have a look at our estimates for Rivian’s segmental performance.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian’s second-quarter Automotive revenues is pegged at $950 million, suggesting a rise from $927 million reported in the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian’s Software and Service revenues is pegged at $554 million, representing a rise from $376 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Rivian for the quarter to be reported, as it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients. A positive Earnings ESP, combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: RIVN has an Earnings ESP of -4.29%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged below the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: It currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are a few players from the auto space that, per our model, have the correct ingredients to post an earnings beat this time.

Lear Corporation LEA is slated to release second-quarter 2026 results on July 31. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.18% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LEA’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $3.89 per share and $6.14 billion.

Cummins Inc. CMI is slated to release second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 4. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMI’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $7.33 per share and $9.33 billion. 

BorgWarner Inc. BWA is slated to release second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 5. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.62% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BWA’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.26 per share and $3.58 billion.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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