Should Howmet Aerospace Shares be in Your Portfolio Pre-Q2 Earnings?

Earnings Surprise History

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The company has surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice and missed once in the preceding four quarters, the average surprise being -1.3%. In the last reported quarter, it reported earnings of 86 cents per share, which missed the consensus estimate by 22.5%.

Earnings Whispers for HWM

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for HWM this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below. 

Earnings ESP: HWM has an Earnings ESP of -0.83% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.23 per share, which is higher than the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.22. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: HWM currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors to Note Ahead of Howmet Aerospace’s Q2 Results

Howmet Aerospace’s second-quarter results are expected to gain from persistent strength in its commercial aerospace market. Solid demand in the air transport market has been driving demand for wide-body aircraft, thereby supporting continued OEM spending. Pickup in air travel has been positive for the company as the increased usage of aircraft spurs spending on parts and products that it provides.

Increasing popularity for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft with reduced carbon emissions and increased spare demand for engines are expected to have proven promising for HWM in the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues from the commercial aerospace market is pegged at $1.29 billion, indicating a 21.7% rise from the year-ago quarter number.

Also, the company's defense aerospace market remains a key growth driver, backed by stable government funding. HWM is continuing to experience robust orders for engine spares for legacy fighters like the F-15 and the F-16. This is expected to have augmented its revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. The consensus estimate for revenues from the defense aerospace market is pegged at $388 million, indicating 10.2% growth from the year-ago quarter’s number.

However, Howmet Aerospace has been facing weakness in the commercial transportation market served by the Forged Wheels segment, due to lower OEM builds and tariff-related impacts in North America. This is likely to have affected its second-quarter performance.

Howmet Aerospace is dependent on a global supply chain, and in recent years, it has experienced supply-chain disruptions in the aerospace sector that resulted in delays and increased costs. Despite moderation, the persistence of supply-chain issues in the aerospace sector is likely to have affected its operations and performance.

HWM’s Price Performance

HWM shares have gained 29.1% in the past six months compared with the Zacks Aerospace - Defense industry and the S&P 500’s decline of 2.3% and growth of 11.8%, respectively. In comparison, the company’s peers, Textron Inc. TXT and RTX Corporation RTX have decreased 6.6% and gained 9.7%, respectively, in the same period.

Six-Month Price Performance

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Howmet Aerospace’s Valuation Remains an Overhang

HWM is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 51.67X, much higher than the industry average of 34.53X. This elevated valuation could make the stock vulnerable to further pullbacks if market sentiment sours. In comparison with HWM’s valuation, its peers, Textron and RTX Corp., are trading cheaper. Notably, Textron and RTX Corp. are currently trading at 12.76X and 28.9X, respectively.

Price-to-Earnings (Forward 12 Months)

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Investment Thesis

Howmet Aerospace is well-positioned for long-term growth, supported by its diversified portfolio and strong demand across the commercial aerospace and defense markets. The House of Representatives passed the fiscal year 2026 Defense Appropriations Act in July 2025, providing a total discretionary allocation of $831.5 billion. The expanded defense budget is expected to create additional contract opportunities for Howmet Aerospace, supporting growth in its defense aerospace business and boosting its top line.

However, persistent weakness in the commercial transportation market is likely to remain a near-term headwind. Additionally, Howmet Aerospace's premium valuation may limit further upside and warrants a cautious stance from investors.

Final Thoughts

Strength across the commercial and defense aerospace markets, supported by solid aircraft build rates, strong engine spares demand and elevated defense spending, is expected to drive Howmet Aerospace's growth. Despite its premium valuation, strong growth prospects make the stock worth considering.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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