Should You Buy, Hold or Sell ABBV Stock Ahead of Q2 Earnings?

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ABBV’s Earnings Surprise History

AbbVie’s performance has been impressive, with its earnings exceeding expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It has delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 2.72%. In the last reported quarter, the pharma giant delivered an earnings surprise of 1.15%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

What Our Model Predicts for ABBV

Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

AbbVie currently has an Earnings ESP of -1.01% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Shape AbbVie’s Upcoming Results

For the second quarter of 2026, AbbVie expects adjusted earnings to be in the range of $3.57-$3.61 per share. The company expects net revenues of approximately $16.7 billion. Currency is expected to have a positive impact of around 0.6% on sales.

AbbVie’s top-line growth in the second quarter is likely to have been driven by higher sales of immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. We expect both drugs to continue expanding their market share across all approved indications. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Skyrizi sales is pegged at $5.52 billion, while the same for Rinvoq is pinned at $2.49 billion.

Sales of the company’s flagship drug Humira are likely to have continued their downward trend due to biosimilar erosion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the drug’s sales is pegged at $730 million.

In the oncology franchise, we expect J&J JNJ-partnered Imbruvica sales to continue their downward trajectory. The drug’s sales have been declining over the past few years due to rising competitive pressure from novel oral therapies. This trend is expected to have intensified in the to-be-reported quarter as IRA-driven pricing changes, which came into effect at the start of 2026, are likely to have a further impact on sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the J&J-partnered drug’s sales is pegged at about $533 million.

Roche RHHBY-partnered Venclexta sales are likely to have risen during the second quarter, driven by continued demand in the chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) indication due to its combination use with BTK inhibitors. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Roche-partnered drug’s sales is pegged at $764 million.

We expect AbbVie to record modest revenues from the recently approved rare blood cancer therapy Decnupaz.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for overall oncology revenues is pegged at $1.62 billion, suggesting a slight decline from the year-ago period.

Sales of the neuroscience franchise have shown strong growth in recent quarters. The growth is likely to have been driven by higher sales of Botox Therapeutic, depression drug Vraylar and migraine drugs — Ubrelvy and Qulipta. We also expect the Parkinson’s disease drug Vyalev to have contributed to the franchise’s growth during the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for neuroscience product sales is pegged at about $3.09 billion.

In the aesthetics franchise, we expect overall sales to have started recovering from the sluggish sales of Botox and Juvederm fillers, as experienced in the past few quarters. The improvement is likely to have been driven by stabilizing demand in the facial injectable market in the United States and easing macroeconomic pressures, which is expected to have improved consumer sentiment. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for aesthetics product sales is pegged at $1.27 billion.

Nonetheless, a single quarter’s results are not so important for long-term investors. Let us delve deeper to understand whether to buy, sell or hold the stock at present.

ABBV’s Stock Price Performance & Valuation

Shares of the company have slightly underperformed the industry year to date, as seen in the chart below.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, AbbVie is trading at a discount to the industry. Based on the price/earnings (P/E) ratio, the shares currently trade at 16.76 times forward earnings, lower than the industry’s average of 19.07.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Our Investment Thesis on ABBV Stock

Through the launches of Skyrizi and Rinvoq, AbbVie has successfully fended off its biggest headwind so far — Humira biosimilar erosion — quite well. While both drugs are approved across major Humira indications as well as newer areas like atopic dermatitis, label expansions in newer indications are likely to drive higher topline growth.

Looking ahead, AbbVie expects another strong year for 2026, guiding for about 10% year-over-year growth in revenues. This is likely to be driven by continued momentum in Skyrizi and Rinvoq, a meaningful ramp-up of Vyalev and sustained double-digit growth in its migraine portfolio. These gains are expected to be partially offset by continued Humira erosion and pressure on Imbruvica sales.

Beyond 2026, AbbVie projects high single-digit revenue growth through 2029, supported by the absence of significant loss-of-exclusivity events and continued expansion of its product portfolio. The company is also strengthening its long-term growth outlook through targeted business development, including the recently announced $10.9 billion acquisition of clinical-stage biotech Apogee Therapeutics. The deal not only further expands AbbVie's immunology pipeline but could also be viewed as an attempt to position the company for the next phase of growth in the therapeutic area.

However, competition remains a key concern. J&J recently secured FDA approval for Icotyde, the first oral IL-23 inhibitor for plaque psoriasis, which could pose a long-term threat to Skyrizi if it secures approvals in additional immunology indications. Nevertheless, we believe Skyrizi's strong commercial momentum, broad label and established market position, coupled with AbbVie's continued pipeline expansion, should enable the company to sustain its growth trajectory despite increasing competition.

Stay Invested in ABBV Stock

Despite the recent decline in near-term earnings estimates, we believe AbbVie's long-term growth story remains intact. The decline is primarily due to higher IPR&D expenses, which reflect the company's sustained efforts to strengthen its long-term prospects. Any meaningful decline in the company’s share price could present an opportunity for long-term investors to add the stock to their portfolio.

Beyond Nvidia: AI's Second Wave Is Here

The AI revolution has already minted millionaires. But the stocks everyone knows about aren't likely to keep delivering the biggest profits. AI’s second wave is moving from infrastructure to implementation and these companies are at the forefront of this transition, positioned to become what Amazon and Google were to the internet era.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research