Should You Buy, Sell or Hold MSTR Stock Before Q2 Earnings?

The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $52.04 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days. This figure calls for a sharp improvement of 59.63% year over year. 

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In the trailing four quarters, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice and missed in the remaining two quarters.

Earnings Whispers for MSTR Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Strategy this time. Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, this is not the case here, as you can see below. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Strategy has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) at present. 

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Key Factors to Watch Ahead of MSTR's Q2 Results

Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation is expected to remain the central focus of its second-quarter 2026 results. The company ended June 30 with 846,000 BTC, acquired for $63.94 billion, or an average of $75,578 per Bitcoin. It sold 1,363 BTC on June 29-30 for $80.8 million; the additional 2,225 BTC sale occurred after quarter-end and is a post-quarter event. Strategy had reported a 13.3% year-to-date BTC Yield and 220,900 satoshis per share as of May 25, suggesting that acquisitions and liability management are likely to have supported Bitcoin-per-share growth. 

Capital raising may have boosted purchases but increased recurring obligations and dilution risk. Strategy repurchased $1.5 billion of 2029 convertible notes for about $1.38 billion, lowering convertible-note principal to $6.7 billion. It also issued $2 billion of STRC and $84 million of MSTR shares to fund Bitcoin purchases. By June 28, its USD Reserve stood at $2.55 billion, covering roughly 17.4 months of estimated annual preferred dividends and interest expense of $1.76 billion. 

Strategy’s Digital Credit platform is also expected to have expanded its financing capacity. STRC had raised $5.58 billion year to date by May 3, while total preferred stock outstanding reached $15.5 billion by May 25. However, preferred issuance created substantial dividend commitments. 

Most importantly, Strategy has preliminarily disclosed an $8.32-billion second-quarter 2026 digital-asset loss, comprising an $8.31-billion unrealized loss and a $0.9-million realized loss. Bitcoin’s carrying value was $49.67 billion at quarter-end, below its cost basis, prompting a full valuation allowance against the related deferred tax benefit and asset. Fair-value losses, financing costs, preferred dividends and common-share dilution are likely to have driven substantial second-quarter 2026 earnings volatility.

MSTR's Stock Price Performance & Valuation

Strategy shares have plunged 36.7% year to date, wider than the industry’s fall of 10.9%. The stock has trailed key Bitcoin-exposed peers such as MARA Holdings MARA and CleanSpark CLSK, both of which have posted stronger gains of 26.7% and 33.2%, respectively, in the year-to-date period. The divergence highlights investor rotation toward miners such as MARA Holdings and CleanSpark.

MSTR YTD Stock Performance

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Strategy appears meaningfully overvalued at current levels, reflected in its Value Score of F. The stock is trading at an elevated forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 67.33, significantly higher than the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry’s average of 2.78. This premium also far exceeds key Bitcoin-exposed peers such as MARA Holdings (5.16) and CleanSpark (4.64).

MSTR Shares Are Overvalued

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Investment Thesis on MSTR Stock

Strategy’s long-term Bitcoin exposure offers substantial upside during favorable crypto cycles, supported by its scale, capital-market access and expanding preferred-equity platform. However, the near-term risk-reward profile appears unfavorable. The expected $8.32-billion digital-asset loss highlights extreme earnings volatility, while continued equity issuance, preferred dividends, interest costs and reliance on receptive capital markets increase financial risk. 

Bitcoin holdings remain below aggregate acquisition cost, and further price weakness could pressure asset values, liquidity and shareholder returns. Given elevated leverage, dilution concerns and limited visibility into sustainable operating earnings, investors may consider reducing exposure to MSTR until the balance sheet and earnings outlook improve materially.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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