Should You Buy, Sell or Hold NUE Stock Ahead of Q2 Earnings?

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NUE surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 8.1%, on average.

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Q2 Earnings Whispers for NUE Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Nucor this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP  and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

NUE has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Shaping NUE’s Q2 Results

Higher segment earnings are likely to have aided NUE’s performance in the second quarter. Nucor is expected to have benefited from higher selling prices and strong demand from non-residential construction & infrastructure, military & defense and energy end markets.

Nucor, last month, said that it expects earnings to increase across all three operating segments compared to the previous quarter. The largest increase is expected to be witnessed in the steel mills segment due to higher average selling prices and stable volumes.

Approximately $130 million in cash refunds tied to prior raw materials procurement costs will also benefit the costs in the segment. The steel products segment is expected to benefit from higher volumes and slightly improved pricing, while the raw materials segment should see gains from stronger realized prices.

U.S. steel prices recovered in the fourth quarter of 2025, following the lows seen in the third quarter, and the momentum continued in the first half of 2026. Overall demand weakness and abundant steel mill output dragged benchmark hot-rolled coil (“HRC”) prices below $800 per short ton in late August, continuing through early September. 

HRC prices have rebounded on major steel mills' price increases, extending lead times and tightening supply, partly due to plant outages and reduced imports driven by tariffs. The recovery has led to HRC prices surging to near $1,200 per short ton. 

Higher selling prices are expected to have supported Nucor’s performance in the quarter to be reported. Our estimate for second-quarter average sales price per ton for the company’s steel mills unit stands at $1,308, indicating a 25.6% year-over-year increase.

Nucor is expected to have witnessed continued demand weakness in certain markets such as heavy equipment, rail cars, truck and trailer and agriculture. Residential construction, a key end market for Nucor, remains another area of weakness. The construction sector has experienced a slowdown in the United States due to high interest rates, dampening steel demand in this market. Elevated borrowing costs and inflation have taken a bite out of the residential construction industry. The softness in this market is expected to have continued in the June quarter.

NUE Stock’s Price Performance and Valuation

Nucor’s shares have gained 65.4% in the past year, topping the Zacks Steel Producers industry’s rise of 60.9% and the S&P 500’s increase of 20%. Among its major U.S. steel-making peers, Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD has rallied 83.9% while Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. CLF has lost 4.2%.

NUE’s One-year Price Performance

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From a valuation standpoint, Nucor is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 13.25, a roughly 14.2% premium to the peer group average of 11.6X. It is trading at a discount to Cleveland-Cliffs and at a modest premium to Steel Dynamics. NUE currently has a Value Score of B, while Steel Dynamics and Cleveland-Cliffs have a Value Score of C and F, respectively.  

NUE’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, STLD and CLF

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Investment Thesis for NUE Stock

Nucor is well positioned for long-term growth through capacity expansion, strategic acquisitions and a disciplined capital allocation strategy. Its new mills and downstream investments should strengthen its low-cost position, while solid liquidity and consistent shareholder returns reinforce financial resilience. Higher U.S. steel prices also provide a supportive backdrop for margins. 

However, the company continues to face headwinds from weak demand in residential construction and cyclical industrial markets, including heavy equipment and transportation. While these challenges may weigh on near-term performance, Nucor’s diversified end-market exposure, growth pipeline and strong balance sheet support its long-term investment appeal.

How Should Investors Play the NUE Stock?

Nucor benefits from its actions to expand its production capabilities and grow its business through strategic acquisitions. Its efforts to boost production capacity through several growth projects should drive profitability. Higher steel prices are also expected to support Nucor’s margins. Despite these positives, NUE remains exposed to demand weakness in certain areas such as residential construction, heavy equipment and agriculture, exerting some volume headwinds. Holding onto the NUE stock will be prudent for investors who already own it, awaiting more clarity on the company’s prospects following its forthcoming earnings release. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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