In Arizona’s most competitive district, Trump’s policies collide with Ciscomani’s reelection bid

The district is currently represented by Republican Juan Ciscomani, who won his last two elections by 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively. But in a midterm election that will be a referendum on Trump’s second term, Democrats see the best chance they’ve ever had to oust Ciscomani, amid wins in competitive races across the country. 

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At the top of issues that are likely to impact Ciscomani’s race is the direct impacts of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” or OBBA, the bill that slashed federal government spending in order to enact massive tax cuts, primarily for businesses and the wealthy. Among the federal spending that was axed were Biden-era tax credits aimed at spurring the sale of electric vehicles. 

And Lucid Motors, which built the nation’s first purpose-built EV factory in North America in Casa Grande, said the end of those tax incentives was directly responsible for its decision to lay off more than 1,000 workers at that plant. 

“The layoffs at Lucid are clearly not good news for the congressman, and Trump’s renewable agenda is not complimentary to the industry and its creating waves,” GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin told the Arizona Mirror. “Not all things are smelling like roses this cycle for the Republican incumbent, and he’s got, by all measures, a well biographed Democrat opponent.” 

Since the factory opened in 2021, Lucid Motors has been the largest employer in Casa Grande, which sits at the northwestern corner of Congressional District 6. Ciscomani has visited the plant in the past, noting its status as a first of its kind factory in the country and was even present at its ribbon cutting ceremony. 

But Lucid isn’t the only company in the district harmed by the policies pushed by the Trump administration — and supported by Ciscomani and nearly every other Republican in Congress.

Kohler had initially received approval by the United States Department of Energy to build clean energy infrastructure at its plant in Casa Grande, but the administration canceled that grant money. Similar renewable energy projects across the state have met a similar fate as Trump has waged a war against  renewable energy in favor of reliance on fossil fuels. 

“It is devastating for a community like Casa Grande and the surrounding area, because there are a lot of small towns that rely on those jobs to keep their roots down in the county,” JoAnna Mendoza, Ciscomani’s Democratic opponent, told the Mirror. 

Ciscomani did not respond to requests for an interview or comment for this story. 

But how will this impact the race? 

According to Coughlin, one of the reasons CD6 is so highly competitive is that economic growth has spurred new voters to flock to the area. 

“It is a classic swing district in Arizona. It is that district,” Coughlin said. “Arizona changes all the time because people move and populations move.”

Those shifting demographics mean that Ciscomani will have to campaign harder and stay focused on his record as well as to try to stay out of engaging with rhetoric aimed at tying him to Trump, Coughlin said. 

However, that may be easier said than done. 

Ciscomani has publicly opposed certain aspects of the administration’s agenda, including with the OBBA when it was still moving through the legislative process. However, at the end of the day, he joined the GOP congressional majority and voted for the bill, which has had direct impacts for Arizonans in CD6. 

Ciscomani’s position is one shared by dozens of Republican congresspeople who are now facing an electorate that is frustrated with Trump, his policies and the elected officials who have backed them. 

He had previously said that the OBBA’s cuts could adversely impact jobs in his district, jobs like the ones at Lucid Motors. Now he and other Republicans whose communities are being directly impacted by measures in the OBBA are seeing it as a liability going into the midterms. 

“This is one of those races where it comes down to candidates and campaigns that matter,” Coughlin said, adding that Ciscomani will need to make it a “local race” and focus on his work with constituents and avoid connections to Trump whenever possible. 

But that’s not the path Ciscomani is taking. Earlier this month, Ciscomani tagged along with Trump administration officials, touting the OBBA. Those issues as well as the rising unpopularity of Trump’s mass deportation agenda are all things that will likely help the Mendoza campaign, Coughlin noted. 

But that’s not to say it will be easy sailing for Mendoza. 

“She can have a tight message, but again, I’ll go back to this, she’s never run a competitive campaign before,” Coughlin said. “I don’t know how she is going to perform as a candidate. I think it is going to be fascinating to watch.”

Mendoza seems undeterred and told the Mirror that, if elected, she intends to help try to reinstate those renewable energy tax credits, as well as protect programs like SNAP and Medicaid. She emphasized that she will not be able to do it all on her own — it will take voters across the country sending Democrats to Congress. 

“I alone can’t fix it, and I want to be really clear about that,” Mendoza said. “I think sometimes you get these empty promises from politicians.” 

She also said she intends to continue to highlight the impacts of the Trump administration’s actions on rural voters in the region. 

“In these small rural communities, they are feeling those impacts every day,” Mendoza said. “There is no secret sauce, no special messaging — it is about showing up and showing that you care.” 

Coughlin warned that Democrats should try to focus less on Trump and more on their own policies in these competitive races if they are looking to win. 

“It is not just Mendoza, it is the entire Democratic ticket. What are we campaigning for? What are we for?” he said, adding that they should focus on what makes them different and inform voters of their policies, specifically on things like immigration. “You gotta have some solution. Arizona is a border state.”

Coughlin said it is especially important to focus on those issues in order to drive voters to the polls, given the low turnout of this year’s primary. Democrats need to find ways to drive out voters to their side, as low turnout in midterm elections has historically favored conservative candidates, although that metric has also begun to flip. 

“Right now, I’m betting (CD6 is) going to flip,” Coughlin said, emphasizing that both candidates are going to need to run focused campaigns. “(Ciscomani) is a good campaigner, I know that…He is not going to run a bad campaign, and this is where it will matter what kind of campaign she runs.”

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