The Trump administration’s ‘draconian’ water cuts could gut Arizona’s Colorado River supply

The Lower Basin states — Arizona, Nevada and California — and the Upper Basin states — Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming — have been attempting to negotiate an updated water usage agreement for more than two years. So far, they’ve been unsuccessful. 

“For many months it has been clear that the direction of Colorado River negotiations has been an exercise in lowering expectations, particularly for a long-term, seven-state agreement on operating this vital river system,” ADWR said in the statement. 

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The Colorado River is a vital source of drinking water for 40 million people in the seven states, Mexico and 30 Native American tribes, and it provides water for farming operations and hydroelectricity. 

All seven states were parties to the Colorado River Compact, a 1922 agreement governing the river’s water use that allocates 7.5 million acre-feet of water each year to be shared by the Upper Basin states and another 7.5 million to be used among the Lower Basin states. 

An acre-foot of water is enough to cover an acre of land to a depth of one foot, or about 325,851 gallons. That’s enough to provide three homes in Arizona a year of water, on average.

Since forming the compact, the states have updated their water usage guidelines several times, even though the apportionments remain the same. But Lower Basin states face cuts mandated by the federal government during times of drought and Upper Basin states do not. 

The existing water usage rules expire at the end of the year, so setting new rules is imperative to the states as the river’s water supply continues to decline due to a 25-year drought spurred on by climate change.

Water officials in Arizona and the Lower Basin states have criticized the Upper Basin states for their refusal to agree to any federally mandated water usage cuts of their own. While the Lower Basin states insist that every state take their fair share of cuts, Upper Basin states have argued that they’ve never used their full allotment and already face regular cuts and shortages based on physical availability of water.

Riley Snow, director of the water law department at Rose Law Group, told the Arizona Mirror that he viewed the Upper Basin’s refusal to take mandatory cuts as a “tragedy of the commons.” 

“I just don’t feel like it’s good policy,” he said. “It’s not good for the Southwest, essentially, especially Arizona (and) California, to not get what they’re entitled to under the compact just because the Upper Basin is in a drought and feeling like they need to hold on to everything that they can.”

Arizona faces an outsized burden when it comes to reductions because the Central Arizona Project, a series of canals that supplies Colorado River water to the Valley and the Tucson area, is one of the newest users of the river water, making it legally one of the first to be cut. 

But Snow said now isn’t the time for Arizonans to panic, as the state has prepared for potential Colorado River cuts via groundwater banking and increasing efficiency. Beyond that, 70% of the state’s water goes toward agriculture, where adopting more efficient practices, fallowing land and growing less thirsty crops could make a big difference. 

After negotiations with the Upper Basin were unfruitful earlier this year, the Lower Basin states in May offered their own proposal to reduce their shared usage by 1.25 million acre-feet annually in 2027 and 2028, with about a 30% cut for Arizona. 

This proposal was aimed at helping to stabilize water levels in Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the system’s two key reservoirs, whose water levels fell this month to their lowest level since 1957. 

Without a major turnaround in hydrologic conditions, water levels in Lake Powell are expected to fall by next spring to below “minimum power pool,” at which point the Glen Canyon Dam’s hydroelectric turbines would be unable to operate.

The Trump administration’s “preferred alternative” plan, part of an Environmental Impact Statement released Friday, could reduce the Lower Basin’s allocation by 3 million acre-feet per year, slashing Arizona’s water supply from the river by  more than 75%. But there’s still a possibility that the federal government could implement the Lower Basin’s proposal instead. 

The federal government’s new river usage rules, which are still being negotiated, will be released later this year. 

“While this (Federal Environmental Impact Statement) still contains unacceptable options that include the federal government forcing Arizona to take the majority of draconian water cutbacks, implementing the Lower Basin agreement would protect Arizona from massive water cuts, distribute reductions more fairly across the Lower Basin States, and provide stability and protection to the water supply that our communities rely upon,” Gov. Katie Hobbs said in a statement. 

In March, Arizona retained the high-powered law firm Sullivan & Cromwell to represent the state in possible litigation among the Colorado River Basin states and the federal government. 

But Snow, who represents water law clients in both Arizona and Utah, told the Mirror that he doesn’t see any litigation in the immediate future. 

Instead, he said that Arizona and the other Lower Basin states should focus on convincing the Trump administration to implement the proposal they presented in May and to put some federal funding behind it. After that, he said, the states can come together to create a long term seven-state solution. 

Hobbs said forcing Arizona to take on such devastating cuts will have repercussions across the American economy and national security.

“Arizona provides the agricultural produce, critical minerals, weapons defense systems and cutting-edge semiconductors that feed America, protect America and fuel America’s high-tech economy,” Hobbs said in the statement. “No other state in the Colorado River basin can say the same. We developed the Lower Basin Proposal to increase water resiliency for the region and ensure that no single state was bearing the burden alone.” 

Arizona politicians from across the political spectrum released statements on Friday, agreeing that the state shouldn’t bear the brunt of the cuts without sacrifice from the other basin states. 

“Arizona recognizes the serious condition of the Colorado River, and we are prepared to be part of a responsible solution,” Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen said in a statement. “What we will not accept is a federal plan that protects some states while placing a devastating and disproportionate burden on Arizona. Our state has already conserved enormous amounts of water and made difficult sacrifices to protect this river.”

Arizona Senate Democrats urged the federal government to build its rules for 2027 and 2028 around the Lower Basin proposal. 

“Water is the foundation of our communities and our economy,” Senate Democratic Whip Rosanna Gabaldón said in a statement. “Our farmers, tribal nations, businesses, and families have worked for decades to use water responsibly. Arizona should not be punished for leading on conservation while others refuse to do their part.”

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