Labor, progressive groups launch $1M push to flip Missouri legislative seats

Missouri Jobs with Justice Action provided half of the money. The money will pay for canvassing and community events, said Executive Director Caitlyn Adams.

Missouri Jobs with Justice Action first used the initiative process in 2006 to establish a state minimum wage above the federal minimum,, and followed it with successful campaigns for increases in 2018 and 2024. 

The first initiative included annual adjustments for inflation. The 2024 measure also required employers to provide a minimum amount of paid sick leave that workers could use for personal illness or to care for a family member. 

The Republican-controlled legislature repealed those provisions in 2025. No Democrat supported the bill and only two Republicans opposed it. 

Other legislative actions, from redistricting to the two failed amendments on the primary ballot, are hurting supporters of the organizations in the coalition, she said.

“I feel very accountable to the folks that were impacted by those policies, and expect leaders to fight for those policies,” Adams said. “And we’ve got to start holding those politicians who ignore the will of the voters accountable.”

The money will be just a fraction of the cash that will be spent to influence the 16 state Senate and 129 Missouri House races that have candidates from both major parties on the Nov. 3 ballot. 

The most recent reports to the Missouri Ethics Commission show the following about campaign finance in Missouri:

• The 53 Missouri Senate candidates and PACs aligned with them held $8.4 million in late July and have raised $11.2 million since the start of 2025.
• House members seeking reelection and candidates who survived the primary had $7.7 million in campaign and PAC accounts after raising $10.2 million.
• The 71 PACs that represent business, labor and political interests tracked by The Independent had just under $10 million in late July and have raised $22 million since the start of 2025. They combined to spend $5.8 million on operations and efforts to influence the Aug. 4 primary and contributed $9.1 million to candidates and other PACs.

The next reports, which will include spending totals through the primary, are due Sept. 3.

Legislative seats and ballot questions will be the battlegrounds this fall.

The only statewide office on the ballot is state auditor, and neither Republican incumbent Scott Fitzpatrick nor Democratic nominee Quentin Wilson have raised as much as some candidates for state Senate seats.

Fitzpatrick has raised $393,752 since the start of 2025, and a PAC working on his behalf, Missourians for a Responsible Budget, has raised almost $500,000. Together the two committees had just under $820,000 in late July. Wilson has raised $84,000. 

Will of the People will not try to compete for voter attention through broadcast advertising, Adams said.

“There’s a very smart way to run these campaigns and make sure that we’re heard,” she said. “That is going to be grassroots volunteer efforts, knocking doors, hosting events, doing town halls, and actions like that.”

Missouri Republicans hold a 24-10 edge in the state Senate and won 111 of the 163 Missouri House seats in the 2024 election. Based on fundraising, two Senate seats appear particularly competitive — the 8th District in Jackson County and the 30th District in Springfield.

House Speaker Jon Patterson, the Republican nominee in the 8th District, has raised the most among all candidates for legislative seats. His campaign committee raised $534,725 in the same period, while Missouri Alliance PAC, working on Patterson’s behalf, took in $1.4 million. The two committees held a combined $2.9 million in late July.

State Rep. Keri Ingle, the Democrat running against Patterson, has raised $317,837 for her campaign committee and $112,950 for KERI PAC. The two committees had a combined $440,000 in late July.

Twenty-one Missouri House districts were decided by 10 percentage points or less in 2024. Democrats won 11 and Republicans won 10. 

Three of those seats won by Democrats are uncontested this year. Democrats need to win three of the others — or score an upset elsewhere — to break the GOP’s two-thirds supermajority.

Among the 10 competitive seats Republicans won in 2024, GOP incumbents have substantial fundraising advantages in five. The candidates were roughly even in four others at the most recent reporting deadline. In the open 12th House District, Democratic candidate Tracy Steele held a 3-to-1 cash advantage over Republican nominee Jerry Hickey.

In the contested competitive seats won by Democrats in 2024, Democratic candidates have a fundraising advantage in six and are roughly even with their Republican opponent in the other two.

Republicans have a big cash advantage in their fund designed to help candidates in tight races. The House Republican Campaign Committee has raised $3.5 million for this election cycle and had $2.4 million on hand in late July. The House Democratic Action Fund, in contrast, has raised $791,472 and had $364,648 on hand in late July.

In the 2024 election, the House Republican Campaign Committee spent $2.9 million, almost four times what Democrats were able to spend.

“There are some key races across the state where grassroots organizing can have the greatest impact,” Adams said. “We’ll work aggressively to defeat candidates who continue to undermine democracy, take money out of our pockets, and put their corporate and political interests ahead of us.”

Part of the goal of the Will of the People PAC is to expand the list of districts that are competitive because that will make the winner more responsive, Adams said.

“We definitely,” she said, “want to hold people who are in leadership and in charge of making some of those decisions accountable.”

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