Cook Political Report: Texas Senate race a 'toss up,' Texas governor leans right

The rating points to overall voter dissatisfaction with Trump administration policies: a challenging economy due in part to tariffs, an ongoing conflict with Iran, widespread data center expansion in rural areas and targeting Texas ranchers and farmers. 

“We may be at a point where voters’ perceptions of the economy (spoiler alert: they’re not good) and Trump’s stewardship of it are baked in,” the analysis states. “Even if the war in Iran were to be resolved and the Strait of Hormuz permanently reopened, voters across the country – particularly in agriculture-heavy states – may not soon forget skyrocketing gas prices, along with rising diesel and fertilizer costs. And there’s no guarantee any of those prices will fall enough to help Republicans by the time voters begin casting ballots.”

Texans overwhelmingly oppose President Donald Trump’s push for data centers in rural Texas. His decision on Friday to undercut U.S. ranchers and producers by importing foreign beef is also expected to directly negatively impact Texas, one of the largest beef producing states. While Trump has pushed to advance lab grown meat, Texas sought to ban it.  

Texas Senate Race

The analysis also points to Paxton’s numerous scandals for being “underwater by as much as double digits in some surveys.” It adds that he’s “notably underperforming even a generic Republican in GOP polling” and “private Republican polling has had the race tied for some time.”

Republicans who can’t stomach voting for Paxton are likely not going to vote for either candidate or vote for a third party, which would benefit Talarico, the analysis states, echoing other pundits’ arguments. 

“There may not be much to do to improve Paxton’s fortunes other than to make him the lesser of two evils for partisan voters. That could be enough to save him narrowly, but at this juncture we have to call Texas a Toss Up,” it says. 

In response, Talarico spokesperson JT Ennis said, "This news proves what people across this state already know: we are going to end 30 years of one-party rule and take back Texas. Ken Paxton is bought by billionaire mega-donors and special interests, runs away every time a reporter asks him a question, and has spent his career enriching himself at the expense of working Texans. Texans are tired of this broken, corrupt political system and are ready to elect a leader who will fight for working people.”

Paxton’s senior advisor Nick Maddux said in an emailed statement, “Every year, Democrats think they have a chance to turn Texas blue. And every year, the person they frame as their next great hope flails and loses. Talarico’s campaign will end the same way. The only poll that matters is November 3, when we prove Texas is red and will remain that way.”

According to the latest Texas Pulse poll, Talarico is leading by four points. The latest Texas Southern University poll has Talarico leading by two points. The latest Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research Fox News Survey has Talarico leading by three points. The polls also show independents favor Talarico by large margins, The Center Square reported.

Texas governor’s race

The same polls have Abbott leading Hinojosa by between one and five points. They also show that Abbott, running for his fourth term, has a high favorability rating.  

Despite Abbott having a $67 million war chest, more than 20 times the size of Hinojosa’s, “Abbott is not immune to the political environment,” the analysis states. It points to widespread opposition to data centers as a key election issue, which Abbott is addressing through directives. Hinojosa has called for a ban until the legislature can ensure union workers are hired to build the data centers, she has said, The Center Square reported. 

The report also points to bipartisan voter opposition to the state’s $1 billion school voucher program and the new redistricting plan Abbott “pushed through the legislature” as problematic for the governor. “Republicans privately acknowledge that this could become a real race. Hinojosa still needs to raise substantially more money to be truly competitive come November. But she has the ability to uniquely appeal to Latino voters, and she’s from the politically-important Rio Grande Valley. 

“Abbott isn’t being helped by Paxton’s Senate race troubles, though he’ll no doubt outrun him. Abbott will have to use his gargantuan cash advantage to put together a turnout operation that not only helps his own campaign but buoys the entire red team – including legislative and congressional candidates – with him running strong atop the ticket. The fundamentals still favor Abbott, but this is now a race to watch.”

In response to the rating, Abbott’s campaign said in an email, “This isn’t a one-state problem. This is a trend. And Texas is at the center of it. Our voter turnout machine is running. And we know we have the strongest base of supporters in the whole country.

But Cook’s new rating means we need to take this election seriously.”

Hinojosa said, “For over a decade, Greg Abbott has put his billionaire donors over working Texans. This November, we vote for change.”