New Marquette Law School poll shows Hong ahead following shakeup in Democratic primary race

A Marquette Law School poll released last week showed that 26% of likely Democratic primary voters would vote for Hong. Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes followed with 15% of likely Democratic voters in that poll. However, that poll was taken before Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez dropped out of the race due to a campaign finance disaster and before Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley got back into the race. 

“I’m pleased to say we managed to do an entire week of polling and no candidates changed,” Charles Franklin, director of the poll, joked at the start of the release of the results. 

The latest poll was conducted between July 22 and July 27. Just after Crowley rejoined the race on July 18 with the endorsement of Gov. Tony Evers. The poll included responses from 407 registered voters, including 254 respondents who were also interviewed for the previous poll and 153 new respondents.

The poll showed that Hong received support from 38% of likely Democratic primary voters — a 12-point jump. She was followed by Barnes with 16% and Crowley with 7%. Former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan and state Sen. Kelda Roys were each supported by 2% of those polled. 

About 34% of likely voters said they were still undecided — down from 45% the week prior. Franklin said this isn’t a trivial number. 

The poll also asked undecided voters who they were leaning towards. The choice of Democratic primary voters, including those with a lean, was 46% Hong, 21% Barnes, 11% Crowley and 4% each for Brennan and Roys.

“This is the lay of the land and what you see is very obvious and that is Francesca Hong has opened up her lead, expanded it beyond where it was a week or so ago,” Franklin said, adding that it looks similar to Evers’ position in 2018 polling during that Democratic primary. “Took people a long time make up their minds and get to know the candidates, and Evers moved up into a significant lead at the end.” 

The poll also sought to understand the impact of Evers’ endorsement. About 62% of those polled said they had heard of the endorsement. Among primary voters, 36% said the Evers endorsement makes them more likely to support Crowley, 9% said less likely and 56% said the endorsement doesn’t make any difference.

Franklin said the numbers reflect “the fact that endorsements don’t matter the way they did 30 years ago, even with a guy with an 89% approval rating.”

“People make up their own minds. The machine is not what it used to be,” Franklin said. “I think there’s a wide open debate, and I guess we’ll really know the answer on the 11th or the morning of the 12th… He does still have two weeks to go in this campaign to convert that into votes.” 

Of Crowley, Franklin said, “He’s certainly in a better position than he was in March when we asked about him way, way, long ago. But these fundamental results say he’s in third place.” 

“Things could shift, I guess, but the Evers endorsement and the reentry did not boost him into second place. He’s in third place.”

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