State Rep. Francesca Hong (D-Milwaukee) is leading the four other Democrats in the primary campaign for governor in a new Marquette Law School poll, a sign of her continued momentum, while more than 40% of primary voters remain undecided.
The poll was conducted July 8 through 16 — around the same time that the Democratic primary field changed dramatically — failing to capture Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez’s exit from the race and the reentry of Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley with the endorsement of Gov. Tony Evers.
Charles Franklin, the poll’s director, said upon it’s release that there is “plenty of room for change” in the race.
Hong led her primary opponents, excluding Crowley, with 26% support among Democratic primary voters, with 45% undecided. The poll included Rodiguez, who dropped out after it was completed, but not Crowley, who had not reentered the race.
Hong has led the Democratic field in each Marquette Law School poll released this campaign cycle so far.
“Consistency counts for something,” Franklin said. “And we see that consistency over this entire time.”
Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes had 15%, Rodriguez had 11%, Joel Brennan garnered 2% and 1% supported state Sen. Kelda Roys.
Some Democrats are skeptical of how Hong, a democratic socialist, will perform in November against presumptive GOP nominee U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany.
The new Marquette poll also showed that Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes was the only candidate who polled ahead of Republican candidate Tom Tiffany. Barnes had 44%, while Tiffany had 40%.
Hong in a matchup against Tiffany polled at 40% to Tiffany’s 43%.
The Hong campaign pointed out that among likely voters the poll showed Hong and Tiffany tied at 44%.
“This poll puts to rest the claim that our campaign cannot compete statewide,” Hong said. “We are building the multiracial, multigenerational and working-class coalition it will take to defeat Tom Tiffany and deliver universal childcare, fairer and cheaper health care, fully funded public schools and permanent affordability for Wisconsin families.”
Franklin said the takeaway from the poll is that the race is close. Another poll will be released next Wednesday, the day after the candidates are scheduled to debate.
Barnes and Crowley both released internal polls seeking to highlight their advantages, though each poll also showed Hong leading.
The internal poll from the Crowley campaign showed Hong with 35% of the vote, Barnes with 15% of the vote and Crowley at 14%. His campaign highlighted that after people were provided with information about the candidates he jumped to 22% of support — 11 percentage points behind Hong.
The internal poll from the Barnes campaign showed Hong at 39%, Barnes at 26% and Crowley at 11%.
A poll conducted by the Roys campaign found that Hong polled at 29% followed by Barnes at 21%, Crowley at 11% and Roys at 7%. According to the poll when voters were provided with information about Roys, their support shifted to 25% Hong, 21% Roys and 16% Barnes.
“We are proud of our momentum, but as they say: Polls do not decide elections – people do,” Hong said. “Over the next 20 days, we will keep traveling, organizing and working to earn every vote in every corner of Wisconsin.”
Hong’s opponents target her in new TV ads
Hong’s Democratic primary opponents have begun to target her in campaign ads.
Crowley does not mention Hong by name in his first ad released since getting back into the race, but highlights a Milwaukee Journal Sentinel article about Republican groups investing more than $2 million in ads that seeming aimed at boosting Hong’s campaign.
“The Republicans have made their choice,” Crowley says in the ad, “spending millions of dollars on candidates they know they can beat. It’s time for Democrats to make our choice.” He also highlighted Evers’ endorsement.
The Barnes campaign also focused on the Hong ads purchased by the Republican Governors’ Association.
“There’s nothing more important than beating Trump’s handpicked candidate Tom Tiffany, and polls show I’m the only candidate in this race who can,” Barnes said in a statement. “That’s exactly why we are seeing the Republicans meddle in our primary with over $3 million to boost my opponent who Tom Tiffany beats in every poll.”
Joel Brennan, the former head of the Department of Administration, who has consistently polled behind his opponents in the primary, released an ad Tuesday that flashed photos of the three frontrunners, all of whom are people of color.
“She’s a proud socialist,” Brennan says as Hong’s photo is displayed on screen. “He lost statewide before,” he says over an image of Barnes. “A couple weeks ago, he dropped out,” he says over an image of Crowley.
The ad does not mention Roys, who, like Brennan, is white.
“They’ll all lose to Republicans in November,” Brennan says in the ad, before talking about himself.
His campaign has received pushback for targeting the candidates of color in the race.
According to the Milwaukee Courier, the Democratic Party of Wisconsin Black Caucus Executive Board responded to the ad by saying it is “extremely disappointing that Joel Brennan released an ad saying none of the candidates of color running for governor could win in November following previous comments in May on this issue.”
Brennan’s campaign said in a statement that the ad was meant to highlight that there are other candidates running apart from the three promoted by “Madison insiders”.
“Each candidate has to make their own case, and the ad points to the facts about others running, why Joel is the strongest candidate to beat Tom Tiffany and what he’ll do for Wisconsin as governor,” the Brennan campaign said in a statement.
Hong released her own ad this week that goes after Tiffany, not her Democratic opponents. She called him an “anti-abortion,” an “election denier” and an “Epstein pedophile protector” and said he “sides with the powerful, not the people.”
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