STX Likely to Beat Q4 Earnings: Is it a Portfolio Must-Have Now?

For the fiscal fourth quarter, STX expects revenues of $3.45 billion (+/- $100 million). At the midpoint, this indicates a 41% year-over-year improvement. Non-GAAP earnings are expected to be $5.00 per share (+/- 20 cents). 

STX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 10.7%.

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What the Zacks Model Predicts for STX

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Seagate this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Seagate has an Earnings ESP of +1.75% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Key Factors Shaping STX Upcoming Q4 Earnings

Seagate’s fiscal fourth-quarter performance is likely to have been cushioned by the explosive growth of AI, cloud computing and enterprise data centers, all of which continue to fuel demand for HDDs. Hyperscalers and cloud providers increasingly rely on Seagate's advanced HDD solutions because they offer the lowest cost per terabyte for massive-scale storage. STX is capitalizing on this opportunity through its HAMR roadmap and areal density strategy, improving cost and power efficiency while targeting mid-20% exabyte growth.

Its 44TB Mozaic 4+ platform is expected to lead HAMR shipments by the end of 2026, while the 50TB Mozaic 5 remains on track for late-2027 qualification. As production scales, Seagate plans to expand HAMR beyond hyperscale customers into enterprise and edge markets, enhancing long-term efficiency and growth. Nearline drives remain Seagate's most profitable business. Enterprise customers continue prioritizing larger-capacity drives that reduce operating costs while maximizing storage density. Demand has consistently exceeded supply over recent quarters, allowing Seagate to maintain healthy pricing.

An encouraging trend over recent quarters has been Seagate's improving profitability. Non-GAAP gross margin hit a record 47%, increasing about 1,080 basis points year over year, driven by favorable product mix and ongoing pricing initiatives in the fiscal third quarter. If revenue again surpasses expectations in the fiscal fourth quarter, margins could surprise positively, leading to stronger earnings growth than revenue alone might suggest. For the fiscal fourth quarter, non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be around $295 million. At the midpoint of revenue guidance, non-GAAP operating margin is projected to rise into the low 40% range.

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STX's optimistic fiscal fourth-quarter outlook highlights increasing business momentum and future opportunities. Management emphasized that the company is entering a “new era of structural growth” fueled by strong AI-driven demand, increased adoption of Mozaic products and disciplined execution focused on expanding margins, cash flow and long-term value. It generates robust free cash flow, which it uses to fund dividends, share buybacks, technology investments and strengthen its balance sheet. Its above-average dividend yield, combined with earnings growth, makes the stock attractive for both income and long-term capital appreciation.

Amid geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East conflict, Seagate does not expect any material impact on its business, supported by proactive supply chain and logistics management. Per management, AI-driven demand for large-scale storage remains strong, with rising exabyte demand, continued Mozaic product qualification and disciplined pricing supporting its growth outlook. Despite the favorable outlook, Seagate is not without risks. It faces risks from a potential slowdown in enterprise IT spending, which could delay storage upgrades despite healthy hyperscale demand. The HDD industry also remains cyclical, with periods of oversupply capable of pressuring pricing and margins.

Additionally, intense competition from Western Digital Corporation WDC and other storage technology providers could have challenged Seagate's quarterly performance.

STX Stock vs. Industry

STX stock has gained traction, climbing 505.3% in the past year, exceeding the Zacks Computer-Integrated Systems industry’s, the Zacks Computer & Technology sector and the S&P 500’s growth of 216.4%, 25.6% and 18%, respectively.

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The company has also surpassed its industry peers like Agilysys, Inc. AGYS, which has crashed 18.7% in the past year. Seagate’s shares have, however, trailed past storage rivals Micron Technology MU and WDC, which soared 790% and 711.2%, respectively.

STX Trades at a Premium

In terms of forward price/earnings, STX’s shares are trading at 30.56X, higher than the industry’s 13.03X. If earnings continue expanding over the next several quarters, today's valuation could still remain justified.

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WDC, MU and AGYS are trading at multiples of 28.42X, 6.64X and 47.92X, respectively.

Is STX Stock a Portfolio Must-Have?

Seagate appears well-positioned to deliver another strong quarterly performance. Robust AI-driven storage demand, expanding HAMR adoption, improving margins and disciplined capital allocation all support the possibility of a fiscal fourth-quarter earnings beat. While cyclical risks and enterprise spending fluctuations should not be overlooked, the company's improving competitive position and favorable industry trends suggest that Seagate can continue creating shareholder value over the coming years.

If it delivers another earnings beat while maintaining a strong outlook for fiscal 2027, the stock may remain an attractive long-term investment. For investors seeking diversified exposure to the AI infrastructure trend along with reliable cash flow and dividend income, Seagate deserves serious consideration as a core technology stock.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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