VFC Slides 14.2% in a Month as Vans Weakness Tests the Turnaround

Vans remains the clearest execution risk. Constant-currency revenues fell 4% in the Americas, 17% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and 15% in Asia-Pacific in the first quarter. Management expects another roughly 9% decline in the second quarter, leaving the first half near a 9% drop. It still expects full-year Vans revenues to decline at a mid-single-digit rate, with the third and fourth quarters down 2% or better combined as wholesale assortments refresh.

There are signs of progress inside the brand. Americas direct-to-consumer sales increased again, e-commerce gained and almost 60% of U.S. comparable stores were flat or growing. New versions of Authentic, Slip-On and Old Skool are generating sell-through. The problem is scale. Wholesale partners are carrying fewer of the newer products, and the recovery outside the Americas remains uneven.

The rest of VFC is providing a buffer. Outdoor segment revenues increased 5% year over year, with The North Face up 4% and Timberland up 3% in constant currency. The company also kept its adjusted operating margin target at about 8% for fiscal 2027. Net debt fell $1.1 billion year over year, while free cash flow improved about $75 million in the quarter, including roughly $50 million of tariff refunds.

VFC trades at 12.2X forward 12-month earnings per share, below the Zacks sub-industry's 14.7X. The earnings estimate for the current fiscal year has declined 2.7% in the past four weeks, leaving valuation support alongside a softer near-term earnings revision trend.

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Crocs, Inc. CROX offers a useful casual-footwear comparison. Its second-quarter 2026 revenues reached a record $1.18 billion, while the Crocs Brand topped $1 billion in quarterly revenues even as HEYDUDE revenues declined 5.7%.

Under Armour, Inc. UAA is another consumer-brand turnaround facing uneven demand. Its first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenues declined 3%, footwear revenues fell 8% and the company lowered its full-year revenue outlook to a mid-single-digit decline while maintaining its profitability outlook.

The near-term setup for VFC remains mixed. Growth at The North Face and Timberland, a lower cost base and lower debt show that the turnaround is broader than Vans, but the company still needs Vans wholesale and international trends to improve materially in the second half. Until that happens, the brand remains the biggest test of the recovery.

VFC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Its VGM Score of B and Value Score of A point to favorable value characteristics, while the Growth Score of C is middling and the Momentum Score of F reflects weak near-term price trends. That mix supports a measured view while investors watch for clearer evidence that Vans is stabilizing.

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