Can Humana Beat Q2 Earnings Estimates on Growing Premiums?

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humana’s revenues is pegged at $162.60 billion, implying a rise of 25.3% year over year. However, the consensus mark for current-year EPS is pegged at $9.25, implying a plunge of around 46% on a year-over-year basis.

HUM’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 3.8%.

Q2 Earnings Whispers for HUM

Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for the company this time around as well. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is precisely the case here.

Humana has an Earnings ESP of +1.71% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping HUM’s Q2 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HUM’s second-quarter premiums indicates a 25.6% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure, whereas our model predicts 24% growth. We expect total Medicare to witness 26.6% growth in the quarter under review. Similarly, the consensus mark for service revenues signals a 22.3% increase from a year ago, whereas our model predicts a nearly 16% jump.

Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for insurance membership predicts a 18.2% year-over-year growth, whereas specialty membership is expected to rise 3.7%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for operating income from the Insurance unit indicates 10.2% growth from a year ago. The same for the CenterWell unit predicts a 12.8% growth from the year-ago level. The above-mentioned factors are expected to have positioned the company for an earnings beat in the second quarter.

However, the consensus estimate indicates that Humana’s investment income will see a 13.5% drop from the year-ago level. We expect total operating costs to increase 24.4% in the second quarter, bringing the figure above $38.9 billion. This is likely to have led to a year-over-year decline in the bottom line.

The consensus mark for insurance benefits expense ratio is pegged at 91.3% for the to-be-reported quarter, deteriorating from 89.9% a year ago. These are likely to have partially offset the positives.

How Did Peers Perform?

Several healthcare companies, including UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH, Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH and Elevance Health, Inc. ELV, have already reported their financial results for the June quarter of 2026. Here’s how they performed:

UnitedHealth reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $6.38, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.94. The bottom line rose 56.4% year over year. Its strong quarterly results were aided by growth in commercial fee-based membership and the strength witnessed in Optum Insight. Medical cost management, pricing discipline and benefit design changes also contributed to the upside. However, weakness in UNH’s Optum Health, Optum Rx and declining risk-based membership partially offset the positives.

Molina reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.51, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.2%. But the bottom line declined 72.4% from the year-ago period's level. MOH’s earnings benefited from lower operating expenses. However, lower premium revenues, declining membership, and weaker investment income weighed on its performance.

Elevance reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $7.45, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 20.6%. However, the bottom line declined 15.7% year over year.The quarterly results were primarily driven by higher premium yields in the Health Benefits segment and increased CarelonRx product revenues. The upside was partly offset by a decline in ELV’s overall medical membership and an elevated expense level.

7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days

Just released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."

Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.9% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. 

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research