Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the "long context," investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.
While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.
Below, we take a look at Financial Institutions (FISI), which currently has a Momentum Style Score of A. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.
It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Financial Institutions currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of "A or B" outperform the market over the following one-month period.
In order to see if FISI is a promising momentum pick, let's examine some Momentum Style elements to see if this holding company for Five Star Bank holds up.
A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short-term price activity, as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand. It's also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.
For FISI, shares are up 2.07% over the past week while the Zacks Banks - Northeast industry is up 1.42% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 9.43% compares favorably with the industry's 3.43% performance as well.
While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. Over the past quarter, shares of Financial Institutions have risen 22.03%, and are up 69.61% in the last year. On the other hand, the S&P 500 has only moved 5.43% and 23.19%, respectively.
Investors should also take note of FISI's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. Right now FISI is averaging 153,532 shares for the last 20 days..
Earnings Outlook
The Zacks Momentum Style Score also takes into account trends in estimate revisions, in addition to price changes. Please note that estimate revision trends remain at the core of Zacks Rank as well. A nice path here can help show promise, and we have recently been seeing that with FISI.
Over the past two months, 1 earnings estimate moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. This revision helped boost FISI's consensus estimate, increasing from $3.96 to $4.21 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 1 estimate has moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.
Bottom Line
Given these factors, it shouldn't be surprising that FISI is a #2 (Buy) stock and boasts a Momentum Score of A. If you're looking for a fresh pick that's set to soar in the near-term, make sure to keep Financial Institutions on your short list.
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Share with Us. We'd love to hear eyewitness accounts, the history behind an article.