How much a stock's price changes over time is important for most investors, since price performance can both impact your investment portfolio and help you compare investment results across sectors and industries.
FOMO, or the fear of missing out, also plays a role in investing, particularly with tech giants and popular consumer-facing stocks.
What if you'd invested in Marathon Petroleum (MPC) ten years ago? It may not have been easy to hold on to MPC for all that time, but if you did, how much would your investment be worth today?
Marathon Petroleum's Business In-Depth
With that in mind, let's take a look at Marathon Petroleum's main business drivers.
Findlay, OH-based Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a leading independent refiner, transporter and marketer of petroleum products. The company, in its current form, came into existence following the 2011 spin-off of Houston, TX-based Marathon Oil Corporation’s refining/sales business into a separate, independent and publicly-traded entity. In October 2018, Marathon Oil completed the acquisition of its rival Andeavor in a $23.3 billion deal, thereby becoming the nationwide largest refining company by market capitalization. The deal also made the company the largest U.S. refiner and the fifth largest in the world by capacity.
Marathon Petroleum operates in three segments: Refining and Marketing, Midstream and Renewable Diesel.
Refining and Marketing: The unit’s operations include 16 refineries, located in the West Coast, Gulf Coast and the Mid-Continent regions of the United States, having a combined crude processing capacity of about 3 million barrels per day. Additionally, Marathon Petroleum – through its marketing organization – sells transportation fuels, asphalt and specialty products throughout the country to support commercial, industrial and retail operations. In the fourth-quarter of 2025, the Refining & Marketing segment recorded adjusted EBITDA of $2 billion.
Midstream: This unit mainly reflects Marathon Petroleum’s general partner and majority limited partner interests in MPLX LP and Andeavor Logistics LP - publicly-traded master limited partnerships that own and operate gathering and processing assets along with crude transportation and logistics infrastructure. Marathon Petroleum owns 63.6% each of MPLX’s and ANDX’s common units. The 'Midstream' segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.7 billion in the fourth-quarter of 2025.
Renewable Diesel: In the fourth quarter of 2024, Marathon Petroleum launched this segment, separating these activities and assets from the Refining & Marketing segment. The unit reported adjusted EBITDA of $7 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.
In 2021, Marathon Petroleum sold its Speedway business to Japanese retail group Seven & i Holdings – owner of the 7-Eleven convenience store chain – for $21 billion.
Bottom Line
While anyone can invest, building a lucrative investment portfolio takes research, patience, and a little bit of risk. If you had invested in Marathon Petroleum ten years ago, you're probably feeling pretty good about your investment today.
A $1000 investment made in August 2016 would be worth $8,521.22, or a gain of 752.12%, as of August 17, 2026, according to our calculations. This return excludes dividends but includes price appreciation.
Compare this to the S&P 500's rally of 256.48% and gold's return of 212.44% over the same time frame.
Analysts are forecasting more upside for MPC too.
Oil refiner and marketer Marathon Petroleum benefits from a large, integrated refining network, advantaged crude access, flexible logistics and expanding high-value product capability. MPLX adds fee-based cash flow and a growing natural gas and NGL platform, while recent refining projects support better yield flexibility. Management also expects a constructive refining environment into 2027, supported by tight product inventories and elevated global refinery downtime. Yet earnings remain exposed to volatile crack spreads, crude differentials and geopolitical disruptions. Renewable diesel still relies on regulatory credits, while a larger midstream growth program raises execution risk. Heavy capital returns also require sustained cash generation as working capital reverses. These offsetting factors support a Neutral view on the shares.
Shares have gained 13.70% over the past four weeks and there have been 5 higher earnings estimate revisions for fiscal 2026 compared to none lower. The consensus estimate has moved up as well.
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