Looking for Earnings Beat? Buy These 5 Top-Ranked Stocks

Why Is a Positive Earnings Surprise So Important?

Historically, stocks of companies with solid quarterly earnings (on a nominal basis) tank if they miss or merely meet market expectations. After all, a 20% earnings rise (though apparently looks good) doesn’t tell you if earnings growth has been exhibiting a decelerating trend.

Also, seasonal fluctuations sometimes come into play. If a company’s Q1 is seasonally weak and Q4 strong, then it is likely to report a sequential earnings decline. In such cases, growth rates are misleading while judging the true health of a company.

On the other hand, after much brainstorming and analysis of companies’ financials and initiatives, Wall Street analysts project earnings of companies. They in fact club their insights and a company’s guidance when deriving an earnings estimate.

Thus, outperforming that estimate is almost equivalent to beating the company’s own expectation as well as the market perception. And if the margin of earnings surprise is big, it typically drives the stock higher right after the release. Thus, more than anything else, an earnings surprise can push a stock higher.

How to Find Stocks That Can Beat?

Now, finding stocks that have the potential to beat on the bottom line may be investors’ dream but not an easy job. One way to do this is to look at the earnings surprise history of the company.

An impressive track record in this regard generally acts as a catalyst in sending a stock higher. It indicates the company’s ability to surpass estimates. And investors generally believe that the company will apply the same secret sauce to execute yet another earnings beat in its next release.

The Winning Strategy

In order to shortlist stocks that are likely to come up with an earnings surprise, we chose the following as our primary screening parameters.

Last EPS Surprise greater than or equal to 10%: Stocks delivering positive surprise in the last quarter tend to surprise again.

Average EPS Surprise in the last four quarters greater than 20%: We lifted the bar for outperformance slightly higher by setting the average earnings surprise for the last four quarters at 20%.

Average EPS Surprise in the last two quarters greater than 20%: This points to a more consistent surprise history and makes the case for another surprise even stronger.

In addition, we place a few other criteria that push up the chance of a positive surprise.

Zacks Rank less than or equal to 2: Only companies with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) rating can get through.

Earnings ESP greater than zero: A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #1, 2 or 3 for an earnings beat to happen, as per our proven model.

In order to zero in on those that have long-term growth potential and high trading liquidity, we have added the following parameters too:

Next 3–5 Years Estimated EPS Growth (Per Year) greater than 10%: Solid expected earnings growth exhibits the stock’s long-term growth prospects.

Average 20-day Volume greater than 100,000: High trading volume implies that the stocks have adequate liquidity.

A handful of criteria has narrowed down the universe from over 7,700 stocks to only 16.

Here are five out of 16 stocks:

Centene: The Zacks Rank #1 company has established itself as a national leader in healthcare services. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The average earnings surprise of CNC for the past four quarters is 151.28%.

Tenet Healthcare: The Zacks Rank #1 company is an investor-owned healthcare services company, which owns and operates general hospitals and related healthcare facilities for urban and rural communities in numerous states, and has offices in California and Florida.

The average earnings surprise of THC for the past four quarters is 22.70%.

Fortinet:The Zacks Rank #1 company is a leader in cybersecurity, driving the convergence of networking and security.

The average earnings surprise of FTNT for the past four quarters is 20.34%.

Unity Software: The company provides a platform to develop, deploy and grow games and interactive 3D experiences across mobile, PC, console and extended reality. The stock has a Zacks Rank #2.

The average earnings surprise of U for the past four quarters is 12.54%.

The Goldman Sachs Group: It is a leading global financial holding company providing investment banking, securities, investment management, and consumer banking services to a diversified client base. The stock has a Zacks Rank #1.

The average earnings surprise of GS for the past four quarters is 20.42%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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