Newmont Shares Rally 24% in a Month: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

NEM’s One-month Price Performance    

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The NEM stock broke above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on Aug. 5, 2026, thanks to the rise in gold prices. It also crossed its 200-day SMA last Thursday. The 50-day SMA is reading lower than the 200-day SMA, following a death crossover on July 9, 2026.      

NEM Stock Trades Above 50-Day SMA

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Let’s take a look at NEM’s fundamentals to analyze the stock better.

NEM’s Project Pipeline Supports Higher Production 

Newmont continues to invest in growth projects in a calculated manner. The company is pursuing several projects, including the Cadia Panel Caves and Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia. These projects should expand Newmont’s production capacity and extend mine life, driving revenues and profits. NEM has recommenced work at the Cadia panel cave project following the seismic event in April. The Tanami expansion is progressing with an expected completion of all underground infrastructure by the end of the third quarter of 2026.

In October 2025, NEM achieved commercial production at Ahafo North, which followed the first gold pour in September 2025. Ahafo North is expected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually over an estimated mine life of 13 years. 

NEM has also received key regulatory approvals from the Province of British Columbia for its Red Chris Block Cave Project, marking a major milestone in the planned transformation of the Red Chris Mine from an open-pit operation to a large-scale block-cave mine. The approvals take the project closer to a final investment decision.  

NEM’s Capital Allocation Backed by Solid Financial Health

Newmont has a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to fund its growth projects, meet short-term debt obligations and drive shareholder value. At the end of the second quarter of 2026, Newmont had robust liquidity of roughly $13 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of around $9 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities amounted to $2.9 billion, up roughly 23% from the year-ago quarter. Its free cash flow climbed 29% year over year to a record $2.2 billion, led by an increase in net cash from operating activities.  

Newmont stands to benefit from higher gold prices, which should drive its profitability and cash flow generation. Its average realized price of gold jumped around 33% year over year in the second quarter, leading to a rise in its top line. 

Gold prices are regaining strength after a significant downward correction. Heightened geopolitical tensions, a weaker U.S. dollar and tariff-related worries drove bullion to a record high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in late January. Since then, gold has pulled back sharply due to inflation concerns triggered by a surge in crude oil prices amid Middle East tensions. While gold started April near $4,800 per ounce, prices tumbled to $4,500 per ounce around the end of May. 

Bullion continued to retreat in June, with prices slipping below $4,000 per ounce to a near eight-month low amid rate-hike expectations and a stronger greenback, despite reduced inflation concerns following the interim agreement between the United States and Iran. Prices remain, for the most part, under pressure in July, occasionally breaking above the $4,100 per ounce level.

Gold prices have been on an upward trajectory lately, surging to a two-month high above $4,400 per ounce. The recent rally is supported by central bank buying and investment demand despite a spike in oil prices amid uncertainties over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which triggered renewed inflation concerns and raised expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike.

Newmont distributed $3.4 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2025. It has returned $1.9 billion to its shareholders since April 23, 2026. Newmont has executed buybacks under the current $6 billion authorized share repurchase program, with $4.3 billion remaining under it. NEM offers a dividend yield of 0.9% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 11%.

Newmont also remains committed to deleveraging, reducing debt by roughly $3.4 billion in 2025. It ended the second quarter with a strong net cash position of $3.4 billion and remains actively focused on managing its debt.       

Weaker Production, Higher Costs Cloud NEM’s Prospects

NEM saw lower gold production for the second quarter, partly linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. The company reported a roughly 13% year-over-year and 1% sequential decline in attributable gold production to 1.29 million ounces. Lower output from Cadia and reduced grades across certain mines impacted production. Newmont expects third-quarter 2026 production to be largely in line with the second-quarter level.

The company anticipates gold production at about 5.26 million ounces for 2026, indicating a year-over-year decline from 5.89 million ounces in 2025. NEM expects lower production from Penasquito and Cadia in 2026 due to site transitions. It also sees lower-than-expected production from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo. These will be partly offset by contributions from the newly commissioned Ahafo North mine.

Lower production is expected to lead to higher unit costs in 2026. NEM expects all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — to be $1,680 per ounce on a by-product basis, indicating a notable increase from $1,358 per ounce in 2025. The expected increase is due to lower sales volumes as a result of planned mine sequencing, higher royalties and production taxes, deferral of sustaining capital from 2025 into 2026 and inventory changes. Newmont also sees a sequential rise in unit costs in the third quarter, mainly due to increased sustaining capital spending and higher oil prices. The production decline and higher costs could undercut the profitability goals.

NEM’s Earnings Estimates Moving Lower

Newmont’s earnings estimates for 2026 have been going down over the past 60 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 has also been revised lower over the same time frame.

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A Look at Newmont Stock’s Valuation

Newmont is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 12.33X, a modest 1.7% premium to the industry average of 12.12X. NEM is trading at a premium to Barrick and Kinross Gold and at a discount to Agnico Eagle. Newmont and Kinross Gold currently have a Value Score of B each. Barrick and Agnico Eagle have a Value Score of A and D, respectively.

NEM’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, B, AEM and KGC

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How Should Investors Play NEM Stock?

Newmont is well-positioned for growth, backed by strong operating performance and a robust project pipeline that is expected to expand production capacity, extend mine life and support revenue and earnings growth. Higher year-over-year realized prices should continue to boost NEM’s profitability and drive cash flow generation. However, lower production stemming from divestitures and lower ore grades, along with elevated costs, could pressure overall performance. Moreover, declining earnings estimates add to the concerns surrounding the company’s outlook.  Therefore, it is prudent to avoid this Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) stock.  

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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