Trump’s Perilous Numbers in PA and Elsewhere

At one point, Trump had literally a 100% batting record in the primaries, with 118 Trump-backed candidates all winning in 110 congressional primaries, 101 state legislative races, nine U.S. Senate contests and 8 gubernatorial races, according to media reports.

But when it comes to his notoriety with Democrats, Independents and even some Republicans, Trump isn’t loved or feared. Instead, he’s hated presumably more than any politician in the last 50 years. According to polling prognosticator Nate Silver, Trump is “the second most unpopular President out of the past 9 midterm elections.” His approval rating in our national poll earlier this year was an abysmal 38%. His average approval rating based on an aggregate of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics is now at 39%. 

To put this into perspective, on average, Trump has the lowest approval rating of any president going back to the 1950s. The highest was John F. Kennedy, with an average approval rating of 70%. Dwight Eisenhower is second highest, at 65%. The second lowest, or just above Trump #47, is Trump #45, who served from 2017 to 2020. Just above Trump #45 is Joe Biden, with a 42% approval rating.

But what’s most striking about Trump’s low approval rating is how far off the mark he is with key constituencies. For instance, according to CNN exit polling after the 2024 election, Trump won 56% of the white working-class vote – a major constituency that propelled him to victory both in 2016 and again in 2024. But in our national poll, only 36% of white working-class voters approve of the job he was doing. This is a 20-point decline and the biggest drop among any demographic group. The second highest decline is Trump’s drop with Independents – going from 46% of the vote based on CNN exit polling to a 28% approval rating (in our national poll). Independent voters are not only a crucial constituency, particularly in recent years as more voters become increasingly disillusioned with both major parties, but the fastest growing segment of the voting population both nationally and even here in Pennsylvania. As we say in politics, you can “rent” Independents for an election cycle, but you can never “own” them. They are the quintessential swing block in every election.

Another constituency Trump has lost ground with is Latino voters – dropping 13 points – or going from 46% of the vote to a 33% approval rating in our national poll. Latino voters are a key constituency because even though they register Democrat over Republican by a 2:1 margin, our polling shows they are very receptive to GOP messages. For instance, in a poll we did for the Hispanic Republican Coalition of Pennsylvania, Latino voters in a swing congressional district told us they prefer Republicans more than Democrats by a 51:37-margin when it comes to which party can “ensure economic prosperity for myself and my family.”

Trump’s impact on congressional races this November can be consequential.  For instance, in the same national poll we conducted, 58% said they’d be more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who is a “check and balance on Trump’s powers and agenda,” while only 36% said they’d be inclined to vote for a congressional candidate who will be “an ally with Trump and will help advance his agenda.”  And despite claims by Trump and GOP leadership that economic conditions are improving, Americans are simply not sanguine. According to a Gallup survey in May, 76% of adults said economic conditions in the Trump economy are getting worse, while only 20% said they were getting better. 

And despite Trump’s recent and multiple trips to battleground states like Pennsylvania to “rally the base,” it’s hard to make a case that GOP voters are enthusiastic about voting. According to national polls, Democrats lead Republicans in “voter enthusiasm” by double digits.  And even anecdotal evidence we’ve gotten from some of our GOP clients in neighboring states have privately told us GOP fundraising is off, volunteering is down, and some local GOP elected officials are going out of their way to distance themselves from the Trump brand.

So, Trump’s sagging approval rating with many key constituencies – and his love him or fear him brand – could be a heavy drag on turnout this November among cohorts of the population that supported him in record numbers only two years ago.