Democrat Tina Kotek’s second television spot of her gubernatorial re-election campaign focused most directly on the unlikely subject of food banks. But the unsubtle subtext of the ad was the president.
After noting that she had once worked at the Oregon Food Bank, the rest of her narration said this: “that’s why President Trump’s cuts to food assistance were so cruel, and why I fought back so hard. … I will always stand up to Trump and anyone else to protect Oregonians.”
Gubernatorial races usually concern the personalities (or at least images) of the candidates and the issues arising in the state. Those aren’t irrelevant this year, and I wrote about them in an earlier column.
But this year, those considerations are matched by something else: The president of the United States, Donald Trump, who has become such a forceful figure in the country that many political contests beyond the federal are impacted by him. Oregon may be among the states where that is especially true.
But the dynamics are a long shot from places like Idaho or Wyoming. Oregon gave Trump in 2016 about 39.1% of the vote, in 2020 about 40.4% of the vote and in 2024 about 41% — a thin upward climb, perhaps, but each time far behind the Democratic nominee (by about 11%, 16% and 14% respectively).
Trump is in a clear minority position in Oregon when it comes to voting popularity. He appears to have support among most Oregon Republicans, but most Oregon voters are not Republicans: Non-aligned and Democrats both have larger shares.
But it’s more than that. Oregon appears to have been targeted in a number of ways by the Trump administration, and Oregonians are well aware of it. Trump’s comments about Oregon and Portland (which he described as “war ravaged”) have been highly negative.
Proposals to install ICE facilities, such as at Newport, have been heavily protested, as have been the ICE center and activities in the Portland area. Policies such as tariffs and crimped trade relations have hit Oregon as they have elsewhere. Points for criticism are at times indirect, such as the president’s close relationship with tech business executives pressing AI and data centers, both evidently unpopular in Oregon.
And the Republican candidates for governor this year, not only nominee Christine Drazan but also her former rivals for the party nod, appear to know that well. Their collective websites scarcely mention the name “Trump.” When the leading contenders gathered for an April 16 debate at Hillsboro, the name of their incumbent president of their party was never spoken.
Nor will you easily find the word “Trump” on the Drazan website, or in press releases.
The Democratic Party of Oregon wasted no time making the connection, saying on the day she announced for governor last year, “Christine Drazan’s announcement makes one thing clear: Donald Trump is officially on the Oregon ballot. Drazan has sided with Donald Trump on deploying the National Guard onto Oregon streets instead of standing with local law enforcement and Oregon business leaders. She supported a dangerous abortion ban, pushed to cut funding for Medicaid, and opposes vote-by-mail.”
On the day Drazan won her nomination this year, state Democrats said, “Trump is on the ballot in Oregon.”
Even Drazan has implicitly acknowledged as much, saying July 24 at the Oregon Newspaper Publishers Association, “She’s gonna talk for the next 100-plus days about the president of the United States, because that is all she has to point to.”
Knute Buehler, the 2018 Republican nominee for governor, opined: “This election is going to come down to Kotek running against Trump. And Drazan is going to run from Trump.”
This isn’t just a matter of partisan alignment. The relationship of presidents and governors can matter.
One one hand, Trump has shown a distinct willingness to withhold funds and other federal support from states led by elected Democrats. Presumably, Drazan could make a point of that, though she seems not to have.
The counter side is that a Republican governor of Oregon might well be inclined to relate smoothly with a Trump White House, and that could mean major shifts in direction which no one in this campaign has yet addressed.
That’s not all this race is about: See my previous column. But the Trump factor is likely to occupy a lot of the thought process of Oregonians this fall. Maybe about half of it.
Originally published on oregoncapitalchronicle.com, part of the BLOX Digital Content Exchange.
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