How much more could burn thanks to wildfires?

Increasingly hot, dry and windy conditions may "substantially extend" regions affected by wildfires across Europe, according to the findings.

Researchers in Germany calculated that, in a low emissions scenario, about 39% more land would be burned per year by the end of the century compared to today's average.

But, in a high emissions scenario, it would be about 192%, according to the study published in the journal Global Change Biology.

While emissions reductions are crucial to reducing the impacts of fires, the results also show that improvements in prevention, early detection and firefighting have a key role to help to reduce the scope of area affected.

The study was led by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) with contributions from the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research.

Study lead author Maik Billing, a researcher at PIK, said: "Climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe.

"Our results indicate there could be widespread increases in burned area even under comparatively low warming of around 1.8°C.

"But if we emit more, and global temperatures rise by roughly 3.6°C, we see fires become much more prevalent, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe, including areas that to date have not experienced many fires."

The research team compared the projected annual average in 2070 to 2100 with the reference modeled period 2000to 2030.

The team also employed a second approach developed by the Senckenberg researchers that models the effects of human action to prevent, detect and fight fires in a world with higher temperatures.

Continued improvements in fire management have the potential to reduce burned area by 92% in a 1.8°C future and 72% at about 3.6°C.

But the researchers cautioned that the findings could be "optimistic" when it comes to the efficiency of fire management in a much warmer climate.

Study co-author Thomas Hickler, from the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research, said: "We see fire conditions are increasing, so we need to invest more.

"If Europe increases investment in wildfire management: training fire crews, proper equipment, good coordination etc., our projections show that this can make a significant difference.

"But if fires become really extreme, our ability to contain them might break down and we do not know yet where this point is.

"The recent record fires in France clearly show that we cannot simply extrapolate from the experiences of the past,"

The findings come amid another severe wildfire season in Europe.

About 550,000 hectares have burned across the EU as of Aug. 12, according to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), about 2.5 times the average for that point in the year.

Study co-author Kirsten Thonicke, of PIK, said: "The fires in France, Spain and Greece show how quickly hot, dry and windy weather conditions can stretch firefighters and their resources."

She added: "With climate change, conditions could become so extreme that we really hit limits to what we can do to prevent and fight fires once they get to a certain size.

"So, reducing emissions is absolutely essential, together with strengthening local fire management."