Should Cameco Stock be in Your Portfolio Before Q2 Earnings?

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Cameco’s Earnings Surprise History

Over the trailing four quarters, Cameco’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice but missed once. CCJ has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.01%. The trend is shown in the chart below.

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What the Zacks Model Unveils for CCJ Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cameco this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Cameco is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: CCJ currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped Cameco’s Q2 Performance

CCJ holds a 69.8% stake in the McArthur River mine and 83% in the Key Lake mill. It also held a 54.5% interest in Cigar Lake. In July, Cameco raised its stake in the Cigar Lake joint venture to 57.418%.

During May, the company temporarily suspended operations at the McArthur River mine and Key Lake mill after severe flooding in northern Saskatchewan caused a partial collapse of the Smoothstone River Bridge, a key transportation route. However, Cameco quickly established an alternate logistics route, enabling both facilities to resume full production within a short period. The disruption did not alter the company's production guidance for 2026, which stands at 19.5-21.5 million pounds. The midpoint indicates a roughly 2% year-over-year decline.  The guidance includes 9.5-10 million pounds from Cigar Lake and 10.0-11.5 million pounds from McArthur River. We expect the Cigar Lake production outlook to be revised following the ownership increase, though this should not have any bearing on the second-quarter results.

The company has guided uranium deliveries of 29-32 million pounds for 2026, down from 33 million pounds in 2025. Based on the full-year guidance, Cameco would need to produce roughly 4.8 million pounds and deliver about 7.6 million pounds of uranium, on average, in each of the remaining quarters. Accordingly, we expect second-quarter uranium production to be modestly higher than the 4.6 million pounds produced in the year-ago quarter, while sales volumes are likely to be below the 8.7 million pounds delivered in the second quarter of 2025.

Uranium prices remained supportive during the quarter, averaging approximately $85.18 per pound, up 17% from $72.59 a year earlier. Consequently, stronger realized pricing is likely to have partly offset the impact of lower uranium sales volumes, supporting uranium segment revenues.

In the Fuel Services segment, Cameco expects 2026 production and deliveries of 13-14 million kgU compared with 13.1 million kgU delivered in 2025. During the first quarter, production declined 15% year over year to 3.3 million kgU, while sales volumes increased 17% to 2.8 million kgU.

Based on full-year guidance, the company would need to produce approximately 3.4 million kgU and deliver around 3.6 million kgU, on average, in each of the remaining quarters. We therefore expect second-quarter fuel services production to be slightly above the 3.2 million kgU produced in the year-ago quarter but deliveries to remain below the 4.4 million kgU sold in the second quarter of 2025. Lower fuel services volumes, along with softer pricing, are expected to have weighed on segment revenues. 

Overall, Cameco's second-quarter revenues are likely to have declined modestly, as stronger uranium revenues were offset by weaker performance in the Fuel Services business.

On the cost front, cost of sales is expected to have increased year over year. However, the company's ongoing debt reduction efforts are likely to have lowered interest expenses, providing some offset. Cameco is also expected to have continued incurring care-and-maintenance costs related to its curtailed tier-two assets. Overall, lower revenues combined with elevated operating costs are expected to have resulted in weaker earnings for the quarter.

CCJ’s Price Performance & Valuation

Cameco shares have declined 21.8% in the past three months compared with the industry’s 12.3% fall. Meanwhile, the company’s peers Energy Fuels UUUU and Uranium Energy UEC have fallen 40.2% and 26.1%, respectively, in the same timeframe. 

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Cameco stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 15.18 compared with the industry’s 5.05. The company is, however, cheaper than peer Energy Fuels’ and Uranium Energy’s price-to-sales ratios of 15.41 and 54.01, respectively.

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Investment Thesis on Cameco

Cameco is well-positioned to benefit from the long-term growth in nuclear energy, thanks to its high-quality, low-cost asset base and its strategic involvement across the entire nuclear fuel supply chain. The company is also investing to expand production by extending Cigar Lake’s mine life to 2036 and ramping up output at McArthur River and Key Lake toward their licensed annual capacity of 25 million pounds (100% basis). Despite softer near-term guidance, Cameco has strong earnings visibility through long-term contracts. As of March 31, 2026, Cameco had secured contracts requiring average annual uranium deliveries of more than 28 million pounds per year over the next five years. The company also has sale contracts for roughly 83 million kilograms of UF6 conversion to 33 customers. 

Should You Buy CCJ Stock Now?

Cameco's strong portfolio of long-term contracts and strategic presence across the nuclear fuel cycle continue to support its attractive long-term growth prospects. The company is expected to report year-over-year declines in second-quarter revenues and earnings, and an earnings beat appears unlikely. Regardless of the near-term results, existing shareholders should consider holding the stock, given its solid long-term fundamentals and favorable industry outlook. However, with the stock trading at a premium valuation, prospective investors may be better served waiting for a more attractive entry point before initiating a position.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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