SpaceX Stock Posts Best Weekly Gain: Should You Tap It Via ETFs?

Earnings Beat Fails To Impress Initially

SpaceX's eventful week began with its second-quarter results on Tuesday. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeded expectations, but the strong results initially failed to reassure investors concerned about soaring AI spending.

The company’s AI capital expenditures jumped to $15.8 billion in the quarter from $7.7 billion in the first quarter. SpaceX shares subsequently plunged 13.6% on Wednesday, marking a new all-time closing low (read: SpaceX Beats Q2 Estimates, Shares Fall: ETFs in Focus).

Biggest Share Unlock Tests Investor Confidence

The next major test came Thursday, when 911.5 million shares became eligible for trading for the first time. That represented about 43% more shares than the 638.9 million shares offered in the company's June IPO.

The unlock more than doubled SpaceX’s public float, increasing the freely tradable portion of shares outstanding to 11.8% from 4.9%. With the stock already trading below its IPO price, investors had expected the additional supply to create further selling pressure.

But SpaceX shares rose 6.1% on Thursday, defying expectations that the influx of new shares would weigh on the stock.

Staggered Unlock Structure Limits Immediate Pressure

SpaceX's share-unlock structure is unusual because the company is not releasing all locked shares at once. Instead, the expiration is staggered across nine tranches over several months. Thursday's tranche was the first and largest.

Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens said much of the selling pressure may have already been reflected in the stock price, as investors had anticipated the unlock, as quoted on the same Yahoo Finance source.

Retail Enthusiasm Cools But Holds Firm

SpaceX surged from its $135 IPO price to an intraday peak of $225.64 on June 16. Since then, the stock has fallen significantly. The stock closed last week at $133.11.

Retail demand has also moderated since the IPO, but investors have remained net buyers. Retail investors purchased about $405 million worth of SpaceX shares during the first five trading sessions, compared with $103 million over the five sessions leading up to the company's earnings report.

AI Story Drives Long-Term Optimism

Vanda Research believes retail investors are looking beyond SpaceX's near-term financial results and focusing instead on its long-term AI ambitions, as mentioned on Yahoo Finance.

SpaceX is prioritizing long-term growth over near-term cash flow. Despite several risks, CEO Elon Musk projects that SpaceX could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, a year earlier than its pre-IPO forecast.

Although the enormous investment raised concerns about the cost of SpaceX's expansion, retail investors appeared to view the spending as an investment in future growth. Notably, SpaceX's AI business posted an operating loss of $1.26 billion in Q2, narrower than analysts' estimate of $2.39 billion.

Revenues from the AI segment came in at $2.56 billion, better than the $2.18 billion expected, according to StreetAccount, as quoted on CNBC.

Upbeat Estimate Revisions

The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for a loss of 23 cents per share in 2026 (which was revised up from a loss of 53 cents a week ago), followed by EPS of $1.45 in 2027 (which was raised from 65 cents over the past week).

Three of nine analysts have raised the company's earnings estimate for the ongoing quarter over the past week. Six analysts have raised the earnings estimate for the full fiscal year 2026, and five analysts have raised their estimates for the next fiscal year.

Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues calls for $42.96 billion in 2026 (up 130% year over year), followed by $98.63 billion in 2027 (up 129.6%).

Any Wall of Worry?

Despite the strong weekly performance, SpaceX still faces eight additional share-unlock tranches over the coming months. The first and largest hurdle has now passed, but the stock's ability to sustain its recovery will depend on whether the company can continue delivering strong financial results while absorbing the additional share supply.

ETFs in Focus

Investors who have faith in SpaceX’s fundamentals but are in two minds due to the upcoming share-unlock events may tap SpaceX stock through a basket of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The ETF approach minimizes company-specific concentration risks.

Baron First Principles ETF RONB, Roundhill Space & Technology ETF MARS, VanEck Space ETF WARP, VanEck Space ETF ORBX, VegaShares SpaceX & Beyond Earth ETF XSPC and WisdomTree Space Economy Fund WSPC are ETFs that invest in SpaceX to a significant extent.

Investors should note that heavy AI spending is common among major AI companies, as seen in Big Tech’s massive investments. Hence, concerns over SPCX’s high AI spending are unlikely to weigh on the stock for long.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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