U.S. Senate race in Kansas between Marshall, Hamilton likely to consume more than $50 million

Slotting Hamilton against Marshall on the November ballot led prognosticators at Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball to downgrade the GOP advantage to a likely win rather than a slam dunk victory.

Campaign spending in the Senate contest was expected to surpass $50 million during the next three months, said Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University in Topeka.

“I still don’t think Kansas Democrats have woken up … to really what they have here. They will, but Roger Marshall knows,” Beatty said. “That’s why it’s going to be a big-time race, and I think that’s why people are going to look at it nationally, maybe, and be surprised. We got two candidates that we’ll be seeing a lot on the national TV.”

Beatty said on the Kansas Reflector podcast that Marshall would benefit from campaigning as the incumbent and would make use of Trump’s endorsement. The U.S. senator accused Hamilton of being too “woke” for Kansans, but otherwise emphasized his vote for tax legislation signed by the president.

Since capturing the nomination, Hamilton has needled Marshall about the rising cost of living, war with Iran and questions about whether the senator should be considered a resident of Florida or Kansas. Marshall says his official residence is Great Bend, where he worked as a physician before elected to Congress.

Until Hamilton announced his candidacy in April, Beatty said Marshall was looking at a collection of Democratic challengers who didn’t have the ability to raise enough money to be competitive in November. The landscape shifted when Hamilton, who leads the Church of the Resurrection in Johnson County, raised $1 million in his campaign’s first week. In the latest campaign reporting period, Hamilton outraised Marshall.

“The Kansas Senate race by the end of it by November will be the No. 1 Senate race nationally in the United States,” Beatty said.

Masterson v. Holscher

On Nov. 3, state Sen. Ty Masterson, an Andover Republican, and state Sen. Cindy Holscher, an Overland Park Democrat, will be the major party options on the ballot in the contest for Kansas governor.

In the GOP primary, Masterson squeezed out other prominent Republicans after scoring Trump’s endorsement in May.

“My guess is, once Trump endorsed, (Masterson) was at you know maybe 40 points, and just sort of … coasted through the election,” Beatty said. “It’s pretty tough to go against the president of the United States, but it’s particularly tough in the current Republican political environment.”

Holscher didn’t secure the primary endorsement from outgoing Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. That went to Sen. Ethan Corson, who finished second in last week’s Democratic primary.

While Corson had resources to push television and radio advertising, Holscher relied more on messaging through social media and streaming ads. Holscher also took an anti-establishment approach in the primary, Beatty said.

“We got to give her credit,” Beatty said. “Those things I think worked and they’re effective. She used a lot of humor in her messaging and her videos, and some of the younger people were talking about it.”

Holscher and Masterson spoke during their campaigns about the need for property tax relief, merits of massive economic development incentives as well as investment in public education. Both requested political unity among voters who supported other candidates for governor in the primary.

After bitter primary contests, Beatty said, it was absurd so many candidates offered swift endorsements of their former opponents.

“One of the things that gives politicians a bad name is how quickly they turn after a primary and say, ‘Oh, all that stuff I said. Don’t worry about it,'” Beatty said.

On the amendment

Beatty said advocates of the proposed amendment to the Kansas Constitution requiring statewide election of justices to the Kansas Supreme Court didn’t learn from voters’ rejection in 2022 of a constitutional amendment designed to nullify a Supreme Court decision that women had a right to end a pregnancy.

The judicial election amendment on Tuesday’s ballot failed 61% to 39%, while the previous abortion amendment was defeated 59% to 41%.

“In many ways, this was an easier message for the ‘no’ folks than in 2022,” Beatty said. “It had that element of not just being involved with the abortion debate, but asking voters, ‘Hey, you want more politics in your life?’ And the answer obviously was a resounding no.”

He said organizations and individuals opposed to the 2026 amendment mandating election of Supreme Court justices were able to draw upon the same coalition that prevailed four years ago.

“I think they succeeded because they were still riding the wave of 2022,” Beatty said.

Beatty said advocates of the 2026 amendment designed to move the Supreme Court to the right politically didn’t provide voters with a persuasive argument that an overtly politicized court could deliver fair legal decisions.