Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Banco Macro?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Banco Macro (BMA) earns a #2 (Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $2.01 a share, just 28 days from its upcoming earnings release on August 26, 2026.
Banco Macro's Earnings ESP sits at +26.81%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $2.01 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.59. BMA is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
BMA is one of just a large database of Finance stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Realty Income Corp. (O).
Realty Income Corp., which is readying to report earnings on August 5, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $1.10 a share, and O is seven days out from its next earnings report.
For Realty Income Corp., the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.09 is +0.92%.
BMA and O's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Should You Invest in Macro Bank Inc. (BMA)?
Before you invest in Macro Bank Inc. (BMA), want to know the best stocks to buy for the next 30 days? Check out Zacks Investment Research for our free report on the 7 best stocks to buy.
Zacks Investment Research has been committed to providing investors with tools and independent research since 1978. For more than a quarter century, the Zacks Rank stock-rating system has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.08% per year. (These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 6, 2024.)
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd,
racist or sexually-oriented language. PLEASE TURN OFF YOUR CAPS LOCK. Don't Threaten. Threats of harming another
person will not be tolerated. Be Truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone
or anything. Be Nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism
that is degrading to another person. Be Proactive. Use the 'Report' link on
each comment to let us know of abusive posts. Share with Us. We'd love to hear eyewitness
accounts, the history behind an article.
(0) comments
Welcome to the discussion.
Log In
Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
PLEASE TURN OFF YOUR CAPS LOCK.
Don't Threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be Truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be Nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person.
Be Proactive. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.
Share with Us. We'd love to hear eyewitness accounts, the history behind an article.