YPF Q2 Earnings Call Spotlights Higher Outlook and Shale Ramp

Finance VP Pedro Kearney said that adjusted EBITDA reached $2.8 billion and free cash flow totaled $824 million. The company reported revenues of $6.57 billion, which topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.05 billion. Earnings of $3.07 per share beat the consensus estimate of $2.84.

YPF Raises 2026 EBITDA and Cash Flow Targets

Marin raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to around $8 billion from around $6 billion, assuming Brent averages $75 per barrel in the second half and about $82 for the year.

He also lifted full-year CapEx guidance about 5% to $5.8 billion-$6.2 billion, with roughly 70% going to shale, while targeting around $2 billion of positive free cash flow, including M&A proceeds and net leverage near 1x.

Shale Investment Accelerates for YPF

Strategy VP Maximiliano Westen said that shale oil output reached 213,000 barrels per day, up 4% sequentially and 47% year over year. YPF retained its 215,000-barrel-per-day full-year average target.

Marin told a Pickering Energy Partners analyst that YPF had 16 rigs operating, targets 19 at year-end and 21 by February 2027. He said the 250,000-barrel-per-day exit goal now hinges on fracturing and the La Angostura Sur treatment plant.

Westen said that underlying lifting costs fell 31% year over year to $8.4 per BOE, while shale oil hub lifting costs remained around $4 per BOE.

YPF Addresses Export Capacity and Portfolio Risk

A Latin Securities analyst asked about potential VMOS monobuoy delays. Marin said that the unit was transiting the Strait of Hormuz, YPF had purchased a backup, and the project remained on track.

Marin said that VMOS was about 80% complete as of July, targeting commercial operations by fourth-quarter end and first oil in early 2027. He said that the export plan remains centered on VMOS.

On portfolio actions, Marin said conventional-asset sales and the MetroGAS transaction largely complete the noncore disposal program. Excluding divested assets, about 95% of oil production would come from shale.

Downstream Margins Stay in Focus at YPF

Westen said that refinery processing reached a record 351,000 barrels per day, supporting zero gasoline and diesel imports. Refining and marketing adjusted EBITDA rose to $23.2 per barrel from $14.9 in the first quarter.

A JPMorgan analyst pressed on fuel pricing and maintenance. Marin said that pricing will reflect international benchmarks and supply-demand conditions, while fourth-quarter refinery utilization should average around 100%.

Responding to an AdCap analyst, Marin said that YPF does not expect refining and marketing margins to return to the previously cited $12-$14 per barrel range, crediting refinery and logistics efficiency.

YPF Pushes LNG Toward a Q4 Investment Decision

Marin said that Argentina LNG is positioned for a fourth-quarter final investment decision after adding Eni and XRG, each with 32% stakes in the upstream venture, while YPF remains operator with 36%.

A BTG analyst asked about remaining milestones. Marin said that technical work and provincial frameworks were in place, while financial documentation had moved into the ECA and bank review process.

A BofA analyst asked about project economics. Marin emphasized the wet-gas mix and said that YPF uses market futures in planning, pointing to balanced liquids and gas revenues.

YPF Keeps the 4x4 Plan Centered on Shale

Marin framed YPF as moving toward an integrated, export-oriented shale model through faster unconventional development, mature-asset divestments and infrastructure expansion.

Kearney emphasized liquidity and balance-sheet flexibility, while Westen highlighted drilling and fracturing efficiency. Marin's second-half focus is on shale investment, facility startups, downstream efficiency, LNG and VMOS execution.

Zacks Signals for YPF

Presently, YPF carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), with a Value Score of A and a Growth Score of A, a Momentum Score of B and a VGM Score of A. Under the Zacks framework, those Style Scores are favorable, while that ranking is a more neutral signal than a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Style Scores complement the Zacks Rank over a one-to-three-month horizon. The Zacks Rank can change as earnings estimates are revised after the just-reported results, so the current signals are dynamic rather than fixed.

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