New poll shows Stevens leading Rogers, El-Sayed trailing

The winner of Tuesday’s primary will face Republican and former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers in November in one of the nation's most closely-watched Senate races.

The survey was conducted by the Glengariff Group on behalf of Business Leaders For Michigan and the Michigan Education Association. It surveyed 600 likely voters throughout the state and has a margin of error of +/-4.0%.

It found that, in potential general election match-ups against Rogers, El-Sayed trailed by 7.2% with definite voters. Stevens holds a 2% lead with those same voters.

According to Stevens’ campaign, a win by El-Sayed on Tuesday puts “the Senate seat at risk for Democrats.”

“Mike Rogers said he’s ‘in good shape’ if Abdul wins the primary, and Republicans are propping up his campaign because they know they can beat him and flip Michigan’s Senate seat,” Stevens’ campaign said in a statement regarding the poll.

Both Democrats want to succeed retiring U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, a Democrat.

The most-recent polling, compiled by 270toWin, shows El-Sayed leading Stevens 37.4% to 35.8%. That is well within the margin of error.

Although El-Sayed has rejected the label of democratic socialist, he has aligned himself with the Democratic Party’s progressive wing.

He has been endorsed by several members of the progressive congressional group known as “the Squad,” which includes U.S. Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) and Ilhan Omar (D-MN).

While Stevens and El-Sayed share some progressive positions, including support for abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, El-Sayed has embraced a broader slate of left-wing policies, including Medicare for all and a wealth tax on billionaires.

El-Sayed has cast himself as the candidate taking on “AIPAC and the establishment.” The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a pro-Israel lobbying organization, has spent millions backing Stevens’ campaign.

Stevens, meanwhile, has dismissed several of his policy proposals as “aspirational.”

“I'd like to remind Abdul that aspirational goals aren't real results,” Stevens said. “There's only one candidate that's delivered real legislation to lower health care costs for Michiganders, and that's me.”

She’s labeled her campaign “record over rhetoric.”

Stevens also recently received an endorsement from the current seat holder, Peters, highlighting her continued support from the Democratic Party establishment.

In 2024, Michigan’s U.S. Senate race was decided by less than half a percentage point, with U.S. Sen. Elissa Slotkin narrowly defeating Rogers. While Democrats are divided, on the Republican side, the party leadership and funding has once again rallied around Rogers.

The outcome of Michigan's Senate race will play a role in determining which party controls the 120th Congress.

Of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, 33 are up for regular election in 2026, along with two special elections. Democrats currently hold 13 of the seats on the ballot, while Republicans hold 22.