Jack in the Box to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Trend in the Estimate Revision of JACK

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 90 cents, indicating a fall of 11.8% from $1.02 reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $260 million. The metric suggests a decline of 21.9% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.

Factors Likely to Shape JACK’s Quarterly Results

Jack in the Box’s fiscal third-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from improving same-store sales trends, a better balance of value and premium offerings, enhanced digital offer economics and continued progress in restaurant execution. The company entered the quarter with improving momentum, with quarter-to-date same-store sales approaching flat compared with a 3.8% decline in the fiscal second quarter. Continued value messaging, premium innovation and operational improvements are expected to have supported results in the to-be-reported quarter.

Emphasis on balanced barbell strategy is likely to have aided JACK’s performance in the quarter under review. Munch Better Deals helped drive transactions, while Smashed Jack Sliders supported check growth across multiple purchase occasions. The company maintained a consistent $5 value offering and expected its FIFA World Cup initiative to boost fiscal third-quarter sales. Pricing adjustments to select core bundles, with improved value and affordability scores, may have strengthened the company’s value proposition in the to-be reported quarter.

Digital and operational initiatives are also likely to have supported results. Jack in the Box refined first- and third-party digital offers to improve check profitability, while gains in customer satisfaction and order accuracy supported restaurant execution. Mini refreshes, which generated low-single-digit same-store sales benefits, may have provided an additional lift. Improving performance at the company’s Chicago restaurants could also have aided results.

However, elevated commodity costs are likely to have pressured restaurant-level profitability, with beef inflation expected to remain in the double digits through the fiscal third quarter. Accelerating restaurant closures may also have weighed on franchise revenues and margins.

What Our Model Says About JACK Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Jack in the Box this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that's not the case here.

Earnings ESP for JACK: Jack in the Box currently has an Earnings ESP of -1.07%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Jack in the Box’s Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Sweetgreen, Inc. SG has an Earnings ESP of +5.06% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Sweetgreen’s earnings are expected to register a 35% year-over-year increase. SG’s earnings missed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average miss being 42.4%.

CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA currently has an Earnings ESP of +12.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, CAVA’s earnings are expected to increase 6.3% year over year. CAVA’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, with the average surprise being 16.6%.

Brinker International, Inc. EAT currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.12% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

In the to-be-reported quarter, Brinker earnings are expected to register a 23.3% year-over-year decline. EAT’s earnings surpassed estimates in all of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 6.8%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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