Zacks Industry Outlook Franco-Nevada, Centerra, Novagold, Northern Dynasty and Dakota

Industry: Gold Mining

Link: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2976026/5-gold-mining-stocks-to-watch-amid-ongoing-industry-pressures

The outlook for Zacks Mining - Gold industry remains challenging, as gold prices have retreated from their January record, with higher bond yields, inflation concerns and elevated oil prices weighing on the precious metal. Miners continue to face rising costs and labor shortages. Longer-term challenges include resource depletion and declining production from mature mines, which point to a potential supply deficit. 

Amid this uncertainty, Franco-Nevada Corp., Centerra Gold, Novagold Resources, Northern Dynasty Minerals and Dakota Gold Corp. are well-poised for growth, backed by their strong balance sheets and growth initiatives.

About the Industry

The Zacks Mining - Gold industry mainly comprises companies engaged in extracting gold from mines. The mines may either be underground or open pits. Mining is a long and complex process, and requires significant financial resources. It involves exploration to evaluate a deposit's size; assessing ways to extract and process ore efficiently, safely and responsibly; and developing the mine before the actual mining process. It normally takes 10-20 years for a gold mine to produce material that can finally be refined. 

Players in the industry nowadays use a range of sophisticated techniques to extract gold and convert it into dore bars, an alloy of gold and silver, alongside other impurities. These are then sent for purification, after which gold is purchased as bars or coins, or used in jewelry or other purposes.

Major Trends Shaping the Future of the Mining - Gold Industry

Gold Prices Correct from Record Highs Seen Earlier This Year: Gold prices had surged to an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in late January, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, heightened economic certainty and the US-Iran conflict. However, prices have cooled since the Iran war stoked energy inflation and rate-hike expectations. Gold is currently hovering around $4,350 per ounce, representing a modest 0.9% gain so far this year compared with a 66.5% surge in 2025. Recent weakness has been driven by elevated global bond yields, which have reduced the appeal of the non-yielding precious metal. Gold has also faced pressure from rising oil prices due to limited signs of a near-term U.S.-Iran agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Rising Costs and Labor Shortages Continue to Weigh on the Industry: The industry continues to face a shortage of skilled workers, driving higher wages and adding to production costs. Expenses related to energy, water, materials and supply-chain constraints remain elevated. Since miners have limited control over gold prices, they are focusing on increasing production volumes, strengthening operating cash flow and lowering unit net cash costs. Companies are also adopting alternative energy sources, including solar and wind power, to reduce fuel-price volatility and improve supply security. Cost-control initiatives and digital technologies are increasingly being deployed to improve productivity and operating efficiency.

Declining Supply Raises Long-Term Concerns: Depleting resources, declining output from mature mines and a limited pipeline of discoveries remain key challenges for the gold industry. With major discoveries becoming increasingly scarce and new mines requiring significant capital and carrying higher risks, miners are increasingly turning to acquisitions to replenish reserves. 

At the same time, demand for gold is expanding across investment, technology, healthcare and other applications. India and China together account for roughly half of global consumer gold demand, while central banks continue to accumulate the metal as a reserve asset. Gold's role as a safe-haven investment also supports demand during periods of financial and geopolitical uncertainty. With demand remaining resilient while mine supply faces structural constraints, a widening long-term supply-demand imbalance could provide continued support to gold prices.

Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Dull Prospects

The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates bleak near-term prospects. The Zacks Mining - Gold Industry, which is a 43-stock group within the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector, currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #223, which places it at the bottom 10% of 247 Zacks industries.

Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

Before we present a few stocks that you may want to consider for your portfolio, let us take a look at the industry’s recent stock-market performance and valuation picture.

Industry Versus S&P 500 & Sector

The Mining-Gold Industry has outperformed the S&P 500 Index and the Basic Material sector in a year. The stocks in the industry have collectively gained 54.1% compared with the broader sector’s growth of 29.2%. The S&P 500 has risen 23.4% in the same time frame.

Industry's Current Valuation

On the basis of the trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA, a commonly used multiple for valuing gold-mining companies, we see that the industry is currently trading at 6.98X compared with the S&P 500’s 18.06X and the Basic Material sector’s trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 13.29X. 

Over the last five years, the industry traded as high as 11.12X and as low as 5.18X, the median being 7.48X.

5 Mining-Gold Stocks to Watch

Dakota Gold: The company is advancing the Richmond Hill Oxide Heap Leach Gold Project, one of the largest undeveloped heap leach gold resources in the United States. Commercial production is expected in 2029. The company recently completed the 2026 drill campaign at Richmond Hill and results are being incorporated into a Pre-Feasibility Study that is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. The study will support an updated mineral resource estimate, refine the geometallurgical model and establish an optimized mine plan and sequencing strategy. 

At the Maitland property, Dakota Gold plans to advance the Unionville Zone toward a maiden mineral resource by the first half of 2027. The company will also continue to evaluate high-grade exploration optionality at the JB Gold Zone, where Precambrian iron-formation-hosted mineralization shows strong geological similarities to the historic Homestake Mine. These initiatives are aimed at demonstrating the broader district-scale potential of Maitland while maintaining a focus on near-term value creation at Richmond Hill.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lead, South Dakota-based Dakota Gold’s earnings for fiscal 2026 is currently pegged at a loss of 28 cents per share. The estimate has, however, moved up from the prior expected loss of 30 cents projected 30 days ago.  Dakota Gold currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks (Strong Buy) here.

Northern Dynasty: The company’s flagship asset is the Pebble Copper-Gold-Molybdenum-Silver-Rhenum project in Alaska. The project’s current resource estimate comprises 6.5 billion tons in the measured and indicated categories and 4.5 billion tons in the inferred category, containing billions of pounds of copper and molybdenum, millions of ounces of gold and silver plus millions of kilograms of rhenium. It also contains palladium. 

The Pebble project is considered the world's largest undeveloped copper/gold deposit. In June 2026, Northern Dynasty announced that oral arguments were held on June 25 in the U.S. District Court for the District of Alaska challenging the Environmental Protection Agency’s veto of the Pebble Project. It is currently awaiting a decision by the Federal District Court in Alaska. The outcome will help unlock the asset's core financial value.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vancouver, Canada-based Northern Dynasty Minerals’ earnings for fiscal 2026 is pegged at one cent per share, which indicates an improvement from the loss of three cents per share in the prior year. The estimate has remained unchanged over the past 30 days. NAK currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

Centerra Gold: The company delivered a quarter of strong operational execution across its portfolio in the second quarter of 2026. Mount Milligan continued to perform in line with plan, and Öksüt delivered a strong first half of 2026, resulting in a 9% increase to its gold production guidance for the year. Both operations generated robust operating cash flow, supported by disciplined cost management and healthy operating margins. 

Centerra is also advancing its growth pipeline. At Thompson Creek, the company achieved its highest mining rate during the quarter and remains on track for first molybdenum production in mid-2027. Meanwhile, Centerra continues to advance Goldfield toward first production in late 2028 and expects to complete the Kemess pre-feasibility study in mid-2027. The company also plans to publish the Öksüt Life of Mine Optimization study in early 2027. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Toronto, Canada-based Centerra Gold’s earnings for fiscal 2026 is pegged at $1.63 per share, which indicates an improvement of 46.8% from the prior year. The estimate has moved up 1.2% over the past 30 days. CGAU has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 20.1%, on average. The company has a long-term estimated earnings growth of 16.4%.  CGAU currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Franco-Nevada: The company expects total GEO sales of 510,000-570,000 for 2026 and is tracking toward the upper half of this range. Production is expected to be weighted to the second half of the year, largely due to production profiles at Candelaria, Tocantinzinho, Côté Gold, Greenstone and Valentine. FNV also expects to benefit from the commencement of processing of stockpiled ore at Cobre Panamá. 

The company’s diversified portfolio spans precious metals, iron ore and energy, helping reduce exposure to volatility at individual assets. Given its continued focus on cost management, the company has been generating high margins. Franco-Nevada continues to deploy capital into new royalties and streams that can add long-duration optionality without adding operating complexity.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for this company’s earnings for fiscal 2026 indicates 36.2% year-over-year growth. The estimate has moved up 2.2% over the past 30 days. FNV has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.3%, on average. The company has a long-term estimated earnings growth of 14.4% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

NovaGold Resources: NOVAGOLD is a well-financed gold development company focused on advancing the Donlin Gold project in Alaska. Considered one of the largest and highest-grade known open-pit gold deposits, the Donlin Gold project is expected to produce more than one million ounces of gold annually over an estimated 27-year mine life, once in production. 

The company has recently entered into an agreement to increase its stake in Donlin Gold from the current 60% to 100%. The deal, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026, will create a leading U.S. gold developer, with an approximately $4.2 billion equity value and full ownership of the Donlin Gold project in Alaska. The deal will boost NovaGold’s reserves and resources per share through the addition of more than 16 million ounces of measured and indicated resources, including 13 million ounces contained in proven and probable reserves.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for this Vancouver, Canada-based company’s earnings for fiscal 2026 is pegged at a loss of 16 cents per share. The estimate has moved up from the loss of 18 cents projected 30 days ago. NG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 14.6%, on average. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Why Haven't You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?

Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year.

Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.

See Stocks Free >>

Join us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ZacksInvestmentResearch/

Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates.

Media Contact

Zacks Investment Research

800-767-3771 ext. 9339

support@zacks.com

https://www.zacks.com

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance  for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days

Just released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."

Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.9% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. 

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research